Changes in PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2.5&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentrations and their sources  in the US from 1990 to 2010

Skyllakou, Ksakousti; Rivera, Pablo Garcia; Dinkelacker, Brian T.; Karnezi, Eleni; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Hernández, Carlos; Adams, P. J.; Pandis, Spyros N.

doi:10.5194/acp-21-17115-2021

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…We consider the observational period during which numerous studies have documented decreasing EUS air pollution in response to emission control programs implemented in the 1990s and 2000s (Boys et al, 2014;Cooper et al, 2012;Frost et al, 2006;Murphy et al, 2011). For example, 60% decreases in sulfur dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2010 have been linked to 45% lower sulfate aerosol (Skyllakou et al, 2021). Summertime ozone decreases have been attributed to NO x and VOC emissions reductions of 40% and 14%, respectively, from 2002 to 2011 (Simon et al, 2015).…”

Section: Empirical Orthogonal Function (Eof) Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World

et al. 2022

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Risk assessments of air pollution impacts on human health and ecosystems would ideally consider a broad set of climate and emission scenarios, as well as natural internal climate variability. We analyze initial condition chemistry-climate ensembles to gauge the significance of greenhouse-gas-induced air pollution changes relative to internal climate variability, and consider response differences in two models. To quantify the effects of climate change on the frequency and duration of summertime regional-scale pollution episodes over the Eastern United States (EUS), we apply an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a 3-member GFDL-CM3 ensemble with prognostic ozone and aerosols and a 12-member NCAR-CESM1 ensemble with prognostic aerosols under a 21st century RCP8.5 scenario with air pollutant emissions frozen in 2005. Correlations between GFDL-CM3 principal components for ozone, PM 2.5 and temperature represent spatiotemporal relationships discerned previously from observational analysis. Over the Northeast region, both models simulate summertime surface temperature increases of over 4°C from 2006-2025 to 2081-2100 and PM 2.5 of up to 1-4 μg m −3 . The ensemble average decadal incidence of upper quartile Northeast PM 2.5 events lasting at least three days doubles in GFDL-CM3 and increases by ∼50% in CESM1. In other EUS regions, inter-model differences in PM 2.5 responses to climate change cannot be explained solely by internal climate variability. Our EOF-based approach anticipates future opportunities to data-mine initial condition chemistryclimate model ensembles for probabilistic assessments of changing regional-scale pollution and heat event frequency and duration, while obviating the need to bias-correct concentration-based thresholds separately in individual models. Plain Language SummaryPrior studies concluded climate change will worsen air quality in some polluted regions but typically neglected the role of climate variability. Uncertainty also arises from differences in climate model responses. Differentiating the relative contributions of these uncertainties to inter-model differences in projected air pollution responses to climate change is becoming possible with initial-condition climate model ensembles. We analyze day-by-day variations in air pollution over five eastern U.S. regions to quantify changes in frequency and duration of regional-scale high pollution and heat events with small initialcondition ensembles from two different models. Under a 21st century climate change scenario in which air pollutant emissions are fixed at 2005 levels, both models simulate longer-lasting and more frequent Northeast PM 2.5 episodes, which could exacerbate public health burdens, especially given correlations with temperature and ozone. Projecting changes in other Eastern United States regions is limited by inter-model differences that exceed the uncertainty attributable to climate variability. While our ensembles are small relative to those generated now with physical climate models, our findings add to ...

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Section: Empirical Orthogonal Function (Eof) Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World

et al. 2022

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“…PMCAMx was applied with a simulation domain covering the contiguous United States using a grid of 132 by 82 cells with horizontal dimension of 36 x 36 km (total area of 4752 x 2952 km 2 ), and 14 layers of varying height up to maximum altitude around 13 km. The domain is equivalent to that of Skyllakou et al (2021). We apply this simulation approach for the summer Meteorological fields were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRFv3.6.1) to provide PMCAMx with wind components, diffusivity, temperature, pressure, humidity, clouds, and precipitation inputs.…”

Section: Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Emissions in this inventory are resolved by source category, however this level of detailed information was not pertinent to the analysis in this work. A detailed description of these emissions is provided by Skyllakou et al (2021). The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 3 (MEGAN3) (Guenther et al, 2018) was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations.…”

Section: Model Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this work, we investigate the ability of the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions, PMCAMx, relying largely upon NOx-dependent SOA yields and equilibrium semivolatile partitioning, to reproduce changes in predicted bSOA between the summers of 2001 and 2010. Skyllakou et al (2021) evaluated the ability of PMCAMx to link changes in emissions to predicted PM2.5 concentrations in 1990PM2.5 concentrations in , 2001PM2.5 concentrations in , and 2010 for the purpose of investigating health outcomes. The authors found that while anthropogenic emissions decreased over this period, biogenic OA was predicted to increase from 2001 to 2010 in the southeast US mainly due to higher temperatures in the latter period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicted and Observed Changes in Summertime Biogenic and Total Organic Aerosol in the Southeast United States from 2001 to 2010

Dinkelacker¹,

Rivera²,

Skyllakou³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol (bSOA) is a major component of atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5) in the southeast United States especially during the summer, when emissions of biogenic volatile organic compound (VOCs) are high and emissions from anthropogenic sources enhance the formation of secondary particulate matter. We evaluate the performance of PM2.5 organic aerosol predictions by a chemical transport model (PMCAMx) in response to significant changes in anthropogenic emissions during the summers of 2001 and 2010. Average predicted bSOA concentrations in the southeast US did not change appreciably from the summer of 2001 to the summer of 2010, while the anthropogenic SOA decreased by 45 %. As a result, the biogenic fraction of total OA increased from 0.46 in 2001 to 0.63 in 2010. Partitioning effects due to reduced anthropogenic OA from 2001 resulted in 0.4 µg m-3 less biogenic OA on average in the southeast US in the summer of 2010. This was offset by biogenic SOA increases due to higher biogenic vapor emissions in the warmer 2010 summer. Little noticeable difference was observed in OA prediction performance in the southeast US between the two summer simulation periods. The fractional error of OA predictions remained practically the same (0.41 and 0.44 at CSN sites and 0.40 to 0.41 at IMPROVE sites in the summers of 2001 and 2010 respectively). The fractional bias of OA predictions increased from 0.10 to 0.22 at CSN sites and decreased from 0 to -0.09 at IMPROVE sites between the two periods. Removing the NOx-dependence of SOA formation yields resulted in higher fractional error and fractional bias at both CSN and IMPROVE sites in both summer periods, demonstrating the efficacy of the current formulation of SOA yields. Our analysis suggests that the changes in biogenic OA in this forested relatively polluted region appear to be dominated by the partitioning effects and the NOx effects on SOA yields.

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“…Wildfire emissions add to anthropogenic emissions, such as those from fossil fuel burning. Due to regulatory actions to control emissions, there has been substantial progress since 1990 in reducing air pollutant concentrations in the US, 31,32 but increasing wildfire emissions could potentially offset protections achieved in ecosystems affected by air pollution. 33,34 Also, additional deposition from increasing wildfire emissions could make downwind ecosystems more sensitive to existing air pollution or push the total loading closer to or further beyond those critical loads at which deleterious ecological effects occur.…”

Section: ■ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Air Pollutants from Wildfires on Downwind Ecosystems: Observations, Knowledge Gaps, and Questions for Assessing Risk

Paul,

LeDuc,

Boaggio

et al. 2023

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Wildfires have increased in frequency and area burned, trends expected to continue with climate change. Among other effects, fires release pollutants into the atmosphere, representing a risk to human health and downwind terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While human health risks are well studied, the ecological impacts to downwind ecosystems are not, and this gap may present a constraint on developing an adequate assessment of the ecological risks associated with downwind wildfire exposure. Here, we first screened the scientific literature to assess general knowledge about pathways and end points of a conceptual model linking wildfire generated pollutants and other materials to downwind ecosystems. We found a substantial body of literature on the composition of wildfire derived pollution and materials in the atmosphere and subsequent transport, yet little observational or experimental work on their effects on downwind ecological end points. This dearth of information raises many questions related to adequately assessing the ecological risk of downwind exposure, especially given increasing wildfire trends. To guide future research, we pose eight questions within the wellestablished US EPA ecological risk assessment paradigm that if answered would greatly improve ecological risk assessment and, ultimately, management strategies needed to reduce potential wildfire impacts.

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Changes in PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations and their sources in the US from 1990 to 2010

Cited by 10 publications

References 46 publications

Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World

Characterizing Changes in Eastern U.S. Pollution Events in a Warming World

Predicted and Observed Changes in Summertime Biogenic and Total Organic Aerosol in the Southeast United States from 2001 to 2010

Effects of Air Pollutants from Wildfires on Downwind Ecosystems: Observations, Knowledge Gaps, and Questions for Assessing Risk

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