Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis

Ahmed, Naveed; Wang, Genxu; Booij, Martijn J.; Çeribaşı, Gökmen; Bhat, M. Sultan; Ceyhunlu, Ahmet Iyad; Ahmed, Aiesha

doi:10.1007/s00477-021-02067-0

Cited by 41 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 76 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The high flows observed at these stations are completely consistent with [60,61] who proposed increased flows at Shigar and Shyok while decreased flows at Daniyor Bridge (Hunza River). Similarly, the increasing trends of flows align with the recent studies [28,62,63].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Yaseen

Latif

Waseem

et al. 2022

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) features the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH). The snow and glacier meltwater contribution feeds 10 major river basins downstream including Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Jhelum, Kabul, Shyok and Shigar. Climate change is likely to fluctuate the runoff generated from such river basins concerning high and low streamflows. Widening the lens of focus, the present study examines the magnitude and timing of high flows variability as well as trends variability in low streamflows using Sen’s slope and the Mann-Kendall test in UIB from 1981 to 2016. The results revealed that the trend in the magnitude of the high flows decreased at most of the sub-basins including the Jhelum, Indus and Kabul River basins. Significantly increased high flows were observed in the glacier regime of UIB at Shigar and Shyok while decreased flows were predominant in Hunza River at Daniyor Bridge. A similar proclivity of predominantly reduced flows was observed in nival and rainfall regimes in terms of significant negative trends in the Jhelum, Kunhar, Neelum and Poonch River basins. The timing of the high flows has not changed radically as magnitude at all gauging stations. For the low flows, decreasing significant trends were detected in the annual flows as well as in other extremes of low flows (1-day, 7-day, 15-day). The more profound and decreasing pattern of low flows was observed in summer at most of the gauging stations; however, such stations exhibited increased low flows in autumn, winter and spring. The decrease in low flows indicates the extension of dry periods particularly in summer. The high-water demand in summer will be compromised due to consistently reducing summer flows; the lower the water availability, the lower will be the crop yield and electricity generation.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The increasing trend in the snow-fed basins is linked to the amount of winter precipitation and melting in summer [6,21,28,64]. The outcomes of this study are consistent with [27][28][29]60,63] which might be attributed to land use land cover changes (LULC) as observed in other parts of the world [65,66].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Yaseen

Latif

Waseem

et al. 2022

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The Shyok sub-basin showed a rising trend for all four seasons; however, previous studies showed rising precipitation only for winter and autumn (Hasson et al, 2017). The findings of our study were supported by Ahmed et al (2021b) for Shyok sub-basin. Falling trends exist in spring while other seasons fall in the rising trend region for Astore sub-basin (Hasson et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Ahmed

Lü

Booij

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) mountainous range supplies water to 10 river basins serving eight countries. The present study focuses on the river basins located within the HKH region in Pakistan. The modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was used to split the research region into 13 subbasins. The Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were used for the monthly precipitation time series. The Shyok sub-basin (central Karakoram) experienced rising trends for all seasons, while the southwestern Karakoram (Hunza) showed a rising trend only for the winter. The Hindukush Mountain Range feeds five subbasins (Gilgit, Chitral, Swat, Kabul, and Kurram). The Gilgit and Kurram subbasins observed an upward trend for all seasons. A falling trend in spring and transition from spring (falling) to summer (rising) was observed for the Swat and Kabul sub-basins. The Chitral sub-basin received rising precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn, whereas no trend was observed during winter. In the southern Himalayas (Kanshi and Jhelum), no trend was observed in winter and autumn and a falling trend in spring and summer. The Kunhar sub-basin (southern Himalaya) showed rising trends in winter, spring, and autumn. In contrast, the Soan sub-basin (eastern Himalaya) has no trend in spring, and other seasons show rising trends. The sub-basin Upper Indus experienced a rising trend for autumn, winter, and summer, while a downward trend was observed in spring. The IPTA and ITA approaches are much more sensitive than the Mann-Kendall method in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), the IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of the time series. The results presented in this study are an advancement in the investigations made so far in this region and will help to understand the climate and hydrology of this region.

show abstract

“…This method can obtain information when determining the trend and the magnitude and slope of trend transitions between successive segments (e.g., months). Innovative approaches are frequently used in investigating the trends of hydro-meteorological parameters (Haktanir and Çıtakoglu, 2014;Ay and Kisi, 2015;Dabanlı et al, 2016;Caloeiro et al, 2018;Sanikhani et al, 2018;Kuriqi et al, 2020;Harkat and Kisi, 2021;Ahmed et al, 2022). However, the use of these methods in investigating the trend of wave parameters is quite limited (Caloeiero et al, 2019;De Leo et al, 2020;De Leo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It is known that densely populated coastal areas may be adversely affected as a result of the climate change effects. In this respect, for coastal protection, utilization, and management it is critical to understand the changes in wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in coastal areas. Innovative approaches, which are one of the trend analysis methods used as an effective way to examine these changes, have started to be used very frequently in many fields in recent years, although not in coastal and marine engineering. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method provides to observe the one-year behavior of the time series by representing the changes between consecutive months as well as determining the trends in each individual month. It is not also affected by constraints such as data length, distribution type or serial correlation. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate whether using innovative trend methods compared to the traditional methods makes a difference in trends of the climatological variables. For this goal, trends of mean and maximum WS and SWH series for each month at 33 coastal locations in Black Sea coasts were evaluated. Wind and wave parameters WS and SWH were obtained from 42-year long-term wave simulations using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model forced by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Monthly mean and maximum WS and SWH were calculated at all locations and then trend analyses using both traditional and innovative methods were performed. Low occurrence of trends were detected for mean SWH, maximum SWH, mean WS, and maximum WS according to the Mann-Kendall test in the studied months. The IPTA method detected more trends, such as the decreasing trend of the mean SWH at most locations in May, July and November December. The lowest (highest) values were seen in summer (winter), according to a one-year cycle on the IPTA template for all variables. According to both methods, most of the months showed a decreasing trend for the mean WS at some locations in the inner continental shelf of the southwestern and southeastern Black Sea. The IPTA method can capture most of the trends detected by the Mann-Kendall method, and more missed by the latter method.

show abstract

Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis

Cited by 41 publications

References 76 publications

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan

Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About