Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Smith, Peter L.; Smith, Joanne Ursula; Franko, Uwe; Kuka, Katrin; Romanenkov, Vladimir; Шевцова, Л. К.; Wattenbach, Martin; Gottschalk, Pia; Sirotenko, O. D.; Рухович, Д. И.; Королева, П. В.; Romanenko, I. A.; Lisovoi, N. V.

doi:10.1007/s10113-007-0028-2

Cited by 32 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The AVHRR datasets cover 1982. For 2001-2007 we used products from the NASA MODIS sensors, specifically the Nadir BRDFadjusted reflectance (NBAR) product (MOD43B4). We chose the Climate Modeling Grid resolution of 0.05 • and resampled the data to 8 km to match the spatial resolution of the AVHRR data.…”

Section: Data Sources and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Without planting schedules or crop energy subsidies in the form of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel, and without price supports and access to guaranteed markets, the agricultural sector contracted sharply during the 1990s throughout the Former Soviet Union and its client states (Lerman et al 2004). Myriad institutional changes brought by the collapse of the Soviet Union induced changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, land use intensity (Hölzel et al 2002, de Beurs andHenebry 2004a), enforcement of water pollution regulations (Kimstach et al 1998, Zhulidov et al 2000, availability and choice of consumer products in urban areas (Money and Colton 2000), the economic productivity in the industrial and agricultural sectors (Lerman et al 2003, Ahrend 2004, Ostapchuk 2005, and changes in regional biogeochemical cycles (Smith et al 2007, Kurganova et al 2008, Vuichard et al 2008, Henebry 2009). This transformation also manifested as significant changes in land surface phenologies observed through spaceborne sensors, as has been described for Kazakhstan Henebry 2004a, 2005a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Change and persistence in land surface phenologies of the Don and Dnieper river basins

Kovalskyy

Henebry

2009

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Section: Data Sources and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change and persistence in land surface phenologies of the Don and Dnieper river basins

Kovalskyy

Henebry

2009

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This model has been satisfactorily evaluated against data from long-term experiments across a comprehensive combination of ecosystems and climate conditions P. Gottschalk et al: Global SOC projections using RothC 3153 Diels et al, 2004;Kamoni et al, 2007;Shirato et al, 2005;Falloon and Smith, 2002), including arid environments (Jenkinson et al, 1999;Skjemstad et al, 2004) and land use change (Cerri et al, 2003;Smith et al, 1997). It has been used to make regional-and global-scale predictions in a variety of studies (Wang and Polglase, 1995;Falloon et al, 1998;Tate et al, 2000;Falloon and Smith, 2002;Smith et al, 2007). Here we use the RothC model to investigate how climate change predictions affect the possible futures of SOC.…”

Section: P Gottschalk Et Al: Global Soc Projections Using Rothcmentioning

confidence: 99%

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

et al. 2012

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Abstract. We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

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“…ICBM ( Bolinder et al, 2007; 2008) generates a result called re_clim that allows the comparison of turnover conditions of different environments and the CANDY model ( Franko , 1997) calculates the “Biologic Active Time” (BAT) to quantify site conditions. For this study we decided to apply the CANDY approach which was successfully used in several studies before ( Franko et al, 1997; Franko et al, 2007; Kuka et al, 2007; Smith et al, 2007). The BAT approach provides an absolute measure offering time units.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large‐scale identification of hot spots for soil carbon demand under climate change and bioenergy production

Franko

Witing

Jäckel

et al. 2015

J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci.

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Global change scenarios predict an increased risk for declining amounts of soil organic matter (SOM) for Central Germany. Within this region the production of bioenergy is one important strategy to counteract the rising anthropogenic CO 2 -emissions. Both issues have a close connection: SOM is an important basis for soil productivity and requires a steady reproduction flux. Bioenergy production requires productive soils and partly consumes plant biomass C. Therefore, the available amount for SOM reproduction is reduced. This study provides a methodology for the largescale identification of areas with possible conflicts between bioenergy production and SOM reproduction based on (1) the prediction of climate change impact on SOM reproduction and (2) an analysis of the regional distribution of biogas plants. With the C demand index (CDI) and the capacity index (CAP), two indicators were developed which enable the identification of hot spots of high carbon demand for SOM reproduction due to climate change and the usage of bioenergy. As a result of low data requirements, the indicators are widely applicable and transferable to other large-scale studies. The proposed methodology was applied to Central Germany as a pilot region. Results indicate a growing demand (10-40%) of fresh organic C from biomass for SOM production in comparison to the current level. The analysis reveals that the bioenergy C demand is not evenly distributed within the study region. It also shows some regional clustering. Furthermore, the analysis identifies certain hot spots of a high C demand, where a high capacity of biogas production may conflict with rising demands for biomass to mitigate climate change effects on SOM storage. The hot spot areas-identified and selected on a large scale-can subsequently be analyzed in more detail on a local to farm scale by using high-resolution data and models which enable the quantification of soil C dynamics.

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Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Cited by 32 publications

References 33 publications

Change and persistence in land surface phenologies of the Don and Dnieper river basins

Change and persistence in land surface phenologies of the Don and Dnieper river basins

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

Large‐scale identification of hot spots for soil carbon demand under climate change and bioenergy production

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