Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of the Latvian River Annual Flood Peaks

Abstract

Climate change is expected to significantly impact temperature and precipitation, as well as snow accumulations and melt in mid-latitudes, including in the Baltic region, ultimately affecting the quantity and seasonal distribution of streamflow. This study aims to investigate the changes in the magnitude and timing of annual maximum discharge for 30 hydrological monitoring stations across Latvia from 1950/51 to 2021/22. Circular statistics and linear mixed effects models were applied to identify the strength of seasonality and timing. Trend analysis of the magnitude and timing of flood peaks were performed by using the Theil–Sen method and Mann–Kendall test. We analyzed regional significance of trends across different hydrological regions and country using the Walker test. Results indicate strong seasonality in annual flood peaks in catchments, with a single peak occurring in spring in the study sub-period of 1950/51–1986/87. Flood seasonality has changed over recent decades (i.e., 1987/88–2021/22) and is seen as a decrease in spring maximum discharge and increase in winter flood peaks. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt dominated to mixed snow–rainfall dominated, with consistent changes towards the earlier timing of the flood peak, with a more or less pronounced gradation from west to east. Analysis shows that a significant trend of decrease in the magnitude and timing of annual maximum discharge was detected.