Changes in glacier extent in the eastern Pamir, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

Khromova, T.; Осипова, Г. Б.; Tsvetkov, D. G.; Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Barry, Roger G.

doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.01.019

Cited by 112 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The high sensitivity of glaciers to summer temperatures is assumed to be responsible for the long-term retreat (Glazirin et al, 2002). The negative mass budget of the glaciers in this region indicates that increased winter and summer precipitation cannot compensate for the increase in air temperature (Khromova et al, 2006). A smaller reduction in glacier area of 3 % a −1 for the period 2000 and 2007 was observed by Narama et al (2010) for a region which is close to the southeastern Fergana mountain range situated in the east of the Pamir-Alay.…”

Section: Pamir-alaymentioning

confidence: 73%

“…This also influences total discharge from glaciers, which is estimated as 1.6 km 3 a −1 , corresponding to about 8 % of the total annual runoff of all rivers in Central Asia (Suslov and Akbarov, 1973). Focusing on a region in the eastern Pamir, Khromova et al (2006) found a reduction in glacier area of 10 % from 1978 to 1990 and of 9 % from 1990 to 2001. Glacier front variations with annual rates of −11.6 m a −1 for very large glaciers, of −7.3 m a −1 for valley glaciers and of −3.3 m a −1 for smaller glaciers were observed.…”

Section: Pamir-alaymentioning

confidence: 96%

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Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Hoelzle

Azisov

Barandun

et al. 2017

Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst.

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Abstract. Glacier mass loss is among the clearest indicators of atmospheric warming. The observation of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate monitoring strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Long-term glacier mass balance measurements are furthermore the basis for calibrating and validating models simulating future runoff of glacierised catchments. This is essential for Central Asia, which is one of the driest continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the highly populated regions, water shortage due to decreased glacierisation potentially leads to pronounced political instability, drastic ecological changes and endangered food security. As a consequence of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, however, many valuable glacier monitoring sites in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains were abandoned. In recent years, multinational actors have re-established a set of important in situ measuring sites to continue the invaluable long-term data series. This paper introduces the applied monitoring strategy for selected glaciers in the Kyrgyz and Uzbek Tien Shan and Pamir, highlights the existing and the new measurements on these glaciers, and presents an example for how the old and new data can be combined to establish multi-decadal mass balance time series. This is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on glaciers in this region.

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Section: Pamir-alaymentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Pamir-alaymentioning

confidence: 96%

Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Hoelzle

Azisov

Barandun

et al. 2017

Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst.

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show abstract

“…Haritashya et al (2009) report average retreat rates of 10.9 m yr −1 based on model predictions and imagery analysis for the Wakhan Range, just south of the study area (Fig. 2), and Khromova et al (2006) report a decrease in glacier area of 11.6 % (1990-2001) for the northern Pamirs and a general negative mass balance trend for the Pamirs between 1970 and 2000. Lutz et al (2013) used a regionalised glacier mass balance model to evaluate climate change scenarios in the Amu Darya catchment (comprising most of the Pamirs).…”

Section: Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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Abstract.A clear understanding of the hydrology is required to capture surface processes and potential inherent hazards in orogens. Complex climatic interactions control hydrological processes in high mountains that in their turn regulate the erosive forces shaping the relief. To unravel the hydrological cycle of a glaciated watershed (Gunt River) considered representative of the Pamir Mountains' hydrologic regime, we developed a remotesensing-based approach. At the boundary between two distinct climatic zones dominated by the Westerlies and Indian summer monsoon, the Pamir Mountains are poorly instrumented and only a few in situ meteorological and hydrological data are available. We adapted a suitable conceptual distributed hydrological model (J2000g). Interpolations of the few available in situ data are inadequate due to strong, relief-induced, spatial heterogeneities. Instead of these we use raster data, preferably from remote sensing sources depending on availability and validation. We evaluate remote-sensing-based precipitation and temperature products. MODIS MOD11 surface temperatures show good agreement with in situ data, perform better than other products, and represent a good proxy for air temperatures. For precipitation we tested remote sensing products as well as the HAR10 climate model data and the interpolation-based APHRODITE data set. All products show substantial differences both in intensity and seasonal distribution with in situ data. Despite low resolutions, the data sets are able to sustain high model efficiencies (NSE ≥ 0.85). In contrast to neighbouring regions in the Himalayas or the Hindu Kush, discharge is dominantly the product of snow and glacier melt, and thus temperature is the essential controlling factor. Eighty percent of annual precipitation is provided as snow in winter and spring contrasting peak discharges during summer. Hence, precipitation and discharge are negatively correlated and display complex hysteresis effects that allow for the effect of interannual climatic variability on river flow to be inferred. We infer the existence of two subsurface reservoirs. The groundwater reservoir (providing 40 % of annual discharge) recharges in spring and summer and releases slowly during autumn and winter, when it provides the only source for river discharge. A not fully constrained shallow reservoir with very rapid retention times buffers meltwaters during spring and summer. The negative glacier mass balance (−0.6 m w.e. yr −1 ) indicates glacier retreat, which will ultimately affect the currently 30 % contribution of glacier melt to annual stream flow. The spatiotemporal dependence of water release from snow and ice during the annual cycle likewise implies spatiotemporally restricted surface processes, which are essentially confined to glaciated catchments in late summer, when glacier runoff is the only source of surface runoff. Only this precise constraint of the hydrologic cycle in this complex region allows for unravelling of the surface processes and natural hazards such as floo...

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“…The total glacierized area is 10 289 km 2 (1.3 % of total 799 261 km 2 basin area) in the Amu Darya basin and 1596 km 2 (0.14 % of total 1 117 625 km 2 basin area) in the Syr Darya basin, as calculated from the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 2.0 (Arendt et al, 2012), which for Central Asia is a compilation of data acquired between 1960 and 2010. Significant reductions in area and volume have been reported for the Tien Shan (Khromova et al, 2003;Aizen et al, 2007a, b;Bolch, 2007;Narama et al, 2010;Siegfried et al, 2012) and Pamir mountains (Khromova et al, 2006) during the last decades.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July-September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October-February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Changes in glacier extent in the eastern Pamir, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

Cited by 112 publications

References 5 publications

Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

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