Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models

Mohanty, Mohit Prakash; Simonović́, Slobodan P.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148323

Cited by 26 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…The change in both 100 y and 500 y flood event inundation extent is greater than 20%. This emphasizes that the river is on the verge of a flood-prone zone, i.e., the probability of severe flooding in the high-runoff time period [58]. This also indicates that the probability of damage by flood in the future increases.…”

Section: Quantification Of Inundation Extentsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…The value of flood is expressed in terms of percentage. The change can be governed by the mathematical relation shown in the equation below [58].…”

Section: Evaluation Of Change In Inundation Extentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This reflects that the inundation zone, i.e., hazardous zone, is increasing in both 100-year and 500-year return periods. So, proper planning is required in these areas as they are flood-prone zones, i.e., there is high probability of severe flood in high run-off time period [58]. So, the stretch of the river considered for this research is in a high flood-risk zone, which is emphasized by comparison with the FEMA map and the quantification of inundation extent.…”

Section: Flood Innundatation Mapping Analysis Using Hec-ras Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

2022

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Climate change has caused uncertainty in the hydrological pattern including weather change, precipitation fluctuations, and extreme temperature, thus triggering unforeseen natural tragedies such as hurricanes, flash flooding, heatwave and more. Because of these unanticipated events occurring all around the globe, the study of the influence of climate change on the alteration of flooding patterns has gained a lot of attention. This research study intends to provide an insight into how the future projected streamflow will affect the flooding-inundation extent by comparing the change in floodplain using both historical and future simulated scenarios. For the future projected data, the climate model Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) developed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is used, which illustrates that the flood is increasing in considering climate models. Furthermore, a comparison of the existing flood inundation map by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) study with the map generated by future projected streamflow data presents the entire inundation area in flood maps, implying the expansion area compared to FEMA needs to be considered in making emergency response plans. The effect of flooding in the inundation area from historical to future flow values, presented mathematically by a calculation of inundation extent percentage, infers that the considered watershed of Rock River is a flood-prone area. The goal is to provide insights on the importance of using the forecasted data for flood analysis and to offer the necessary background needed to strategize an emergency response plan for flood management.

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Section: Quantification Of Inundation Extentsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…The value of flood is expressed in terms of percentage. The change can be governed by the mathematical relation shown in the equation below [58].…”

Section: Evaluation Of Change In Inundation Extentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Flood Innundatation Mapping Analysis Using Hec-ras Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

2022

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“…Although the results show that the total amount of precipitation will increase in the four SSPs, while the distribution of precipitation may become more uneven. The areas of increased precipitation are mainly concentrated in the upstream and downstream areas, while the precipitation in the middle reaches where the water transfer project located has decreased, which further aggravates the shortage of water resources balance (Bağçaci et al 2021;Guo et al 2021a;Mohanty and Simonovic 2021). In addition, under future scenarios, the trend of heavy precipitation will be more obvious, which will increase the risk of flood disasters in the HRB.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) is located in the climate transition zone between China's north and south, and it is more sensitive and susceptible to climate change (Mohanty and Simonovic 2021;Yazdandoost et al 2021;Zhu and Yang 2020). The analysis of the changes in the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of water resources in the HRB under future climate change is conducive to coping with the uncertain challenges brought by climate change (Ayugi et al 2021;Mondal et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin under climate change

Jin

Chen

Zhong

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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The Hanjiang River is the source of water for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. So a reasonable evaluation on water resources future changes in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) is essential to ensure its water safety. In this study, we firstly evaluated the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD), and then used it to measure the applicability of the eight global climate models (GCMs). Finally, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and clustering algorithms were used to analyze the spatial distribution status of precipitation in the HRB. The results showed that the BCC-CSM2-MR model has the best effect, followed by the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. In the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, total precipitation in the HRB all shows an increasing trend. However, the difference in the spatial distribution of precipitation intensified, for the upstream and downstream tended to be wetter, while the middle reaches had less precipitation. In the future climate scenarios, the areas with more precipitation (Class 1) increased significantly, while the areas with medium precipitation (Class 3) decreased significantly, which will enlarge the precipitation difference between regions in the HRB. The increase in the total amount of precipitation, coupled with the increase in the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation, will make the HRB more vulnerable to flooding disasters. Therefore, the water resources management measures in the HRB should be strengthened in the future.

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Quantifying intra‐ and inter‐annual dynamics of river‐floodplain connectivity and wetland inundation with remote sensing and wavelet analysis

Zheng,

Tetzlaff,

Freymüller

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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We used imagery from remote sensing (FORCE Time Series Analysis submodule (combining Landsat and Sentinel‐2 imagery) to derive spatially distributed times series (8 years) of NDWI data to infer patterns of floodplain inundation and river‐floodplain connectivity in two contrasting polders in the Lower Oder Valley National Park. The upstream Polder A (14.4 km2) was extensively flooded for prolonged periods most winters. Wavelet analysis showed that this strong seasonality was primarily driven by winter water levels in the river Oder that could enter and leave the polder through two opened floodgates. Subsequent drainage was slow and aided by a pumping station. Inundation of the downstream Polder 10 (17.7km2) was lower and had less marked seasonality. This reflected the impact of flood attenuation by storage in Polder A upstream, but also the greater connectivity (via 10 floodgates) to the Oder and a functional network of channels, which facilitated rapid drainage after flood peaks. In Polder A, secondary periods of transient inundation could also occur in response to local intense summer rainfall. Wavelet analysis also showed that groundwater recharge in and around Polder A is primarily induced by floodwater, whilst Polder 10 also reflects the influence of local rainfall‐driven recharge. The flood regimes of the two polders showed marked inter‐annual variation, largely dependent on flows from the upper Oder catchment. Understanding these patterns and processes of inundation is important for both managing flows and sustaining valuable wetland habitats within the National Park. Given projected climate change in eastern Europe and possible management alterations to the flow regime of the Oder, the potential implications for these habitats needs urgent attention.

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Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models

Cited by 26 publications

References 76 publications

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling

Spatio-temporal changes of precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin under climate change

Quantifying intra‐ and inter‐annual dynamics of river‐floodplain connectivity and wetland inundation with remote sensing and wavelet analysis

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