Changes in extreme ocean wave heights under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming

Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning

“…Expanding the limited number of dynamical global wave simulations forced by high-resolution downscaled climate models (0.25°or less) that are more capable of resolving TC-driven waves (relative to coarse CMIPdriven global wave simulations) (53,54) might also help to understand and reduce uncertainties in ETC and TC areas. As previously discussed, our community-based ensemble of global wave projections [and any other ensembles based on standard GCM model data; see (27,(31)(32)(33)(34)] may not sufficiently represent potential future TC changes, suggesting that further research on TC projections and regional-scale TC-produced ocean wave extremes (e.g., using regional high-resolution GCMs and regional synthetic TC events) is needed.…”

“…In addition, increasing evidence suggests that extreme waves are likely to considerably change across many global ocean areas and coastlines due to climate change (27)(28)(29), and such changes need to be accounted for when determining offshore and coastal impacts (30). For example, in the Southern Hemisphere, low-probability extreme wave events obtained using annual maxima (AMAX) H s have been projected to increase by up to ~15% by the end of the century (31)(32)(33)(34). However, existing projections of extreme H s rely on single-method wave ensembles (27,28,31,33,34) and thus neglect any uncertainties between different statistical and/or dynamical wave simulations (26), which are known to account for up to ~50% of the total projection uncertainty (26).…”

“…For example, in the Southern Hemisphere, low-probability extreme wave events obtained using annual maxima (AMAX) H s have been projected to increase by up to ~15% by the end of the century (31)(32)(33)(34). However, existing projections of extreme H s rely on single-method wave ensembles (27,28,31,33,34) and thus neglect any uncertainties between different statistical and/or dynamical wave simulations (26), which are known to account for up to ~50% of the total projection uncertainty (26). These projections have also been substantiated on the basis of different global wave reanalysis and hindcast model datasets (35).…”

Hemispheric Asymmetry in Future Wave Power Changes: Seasonality and Physical Mechanisms

“…The SAM index is defined as difference in normalized monthly zonal mean SLPs between 40°S and 65°S (Gong & Wang, 1999;Son et al, 2021). Further, the seasonal-mean SAM index is standardized by subtracting the seasonal mean and then dividing it by the seasonal standard deviation over reference period, as done in Patra et al (2021). The NH winter MTG is estimated as the absolute value of the surface air temperature difference between high (65°-85°N) and low (20°-40°N) latitudes in CMIP5 models, reduction of which represents Arctic amplification (e.g., Chemke & Polvani, 2020).…”

Research on regional differences, distribution dynamics and convergence of carbon emission levels of rural residents' living consumption in China

“…How to promote the continuous improvement of ecological and environmental quality has become the most concerned and urgent issue in human society in the 21st century (Zhao et al,2020;Wang and Feng,2020). Global warming is not only a direct threat to human life and health (Myers and Pate,2009;Tong et al,2022), but biodiversity and ecosystem balance (Verma, 2021), but also an irreversible threat on the time scale of hundreds to thousands of years in the future (Patra et al,2021). The biggest culprit of climate warming is the excessive emission of carbon dioxide (Ballantyne et al,2018;Panda and Maity,2021).…”