Changes in ecosystem services supply–demand and key drivers in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Human activities and regional land development have considerably contributed to the degradation of ecosystems and the growing contradiction between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) in Jiangsu Province, China. However, few studies have applied a comprehensive approach to elucidate the patterns and evolutionary characteristics of ESs over long periods. This study investigated the spatial–temporal evolution of the supply, demand, and supply–demand relationships of six individual ESs and comprehensive ESs in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020. It revealed the key drivers of the changes in comprehensive ecosystem services supply–demand relationship (CESSD) using a geo‐detector model and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to address the shortcomings of previous studies. The results showed that at the provincial level, the CESSD presented a surplus while the supply–demand state tended to be imbalanced. At the 1‐km2 grid scale, the spatial heterogeneity of CESSD was obvious, with surplus supply–demand zones primarily distributed in the Taihu Lake watershed, hilly areas, riverside zones, the watershed from Hongze Lake to Gaoyou Lake, and the eastern coastal zone, while deficit supply–demand zones were mainly clustered in areas with concentrated and contiguous construction land. From 2000 to 2020, the area of deficit in CESSD increased from 626 to 3257 km2 and the degree of deficit gradually deepened, with socioeconomic factors having the greatest influence on changes in CESSD. Our findings reveal the balance/imbalance between human society and natural ecology in Jiangsu Province and highlight the need for effective management of regional ecosystems.