Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia

Tank, A. M. G. Klein; Peterson, Thomas C.; Quadir, Dewan Abdul; Dorji, Singay; Zou, Xu‐Bo; Tang, Hongyu; Santhosh, K.; Joshi, Usha; Jaswal, A. K.; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Sikder, A. B.; Deshpande, N. R.; Revadekar, J. V.; Yeleuova, K.; Vandasheva, S.; Faleyeva, M.; Purevjav, Gomboluudev; Budhathoki, K. P.; Hussain, Azfar; Afzaal, Muhammad; Chandrapala, Lalith; Anvar, H.; Amanmurad, D.; Asanova, V. S.; Jones, Phil; New, Mark; Spektorman, T. Yu.

doi:10.1029/2005jd006316

Cited by 407 publications

(307 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…These indices have been widely used to assess changes in extreme precipitation events because they are representative approaches that have relatively low noise, weak extremes, and strong significance (Caesar et al, 2011;Klein Tank et al, 2006). The ten extreme precipitation indices were classified into two types: precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, RX1day, RX5day, R95 and R99) and SDII; and number of precipitation days (R10mm, R20mm, CWD, and CDD).…”

Section: Extreme Precipitation and Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Song

Sun

et al. 2015

Atmospheric Research

152

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Based on ten indices of extreme precipitation and one drought index (composite index, CI), the trends in extreme events were investigated using a Mann-Kendall non-parametric method at 39 stations in the Songhua River Basin (SHB) during 1960-2013. The regionally averaged wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) increased at a rate of 1.65 mm/year (R 2 = 0.28, P = 0.13), in which 82% of the stations experienced increases, but only 4 stations showed significant positive trends. The annual R95 and R99 exhibited slight upward trends at rates of 1.37 (R 2 = 0.21, P = 0.27) and 1.28 mm/year (R 2 = 0.23, P = 0.23) over the last 54 years; however, there were not significant trends in R95 and R99 at the 0.05 level. PRCPTOT, R95 and R99 showed similar spatial trends, in which positive trends mainly occurred in the northern and southeastern basins. The trends in the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) do not show a prevalent trend (approximately 50% of the stations have a positive trend and the remaining stations have a negative trend). The simple daily intensity index (SDII) significantly decreased at an annual rate of 0.02 mm/d during 1960-2013 (R 2 = 0.66, P b 0.01); spatially, 49% of the stations experienced statistically significant decreases at the 0.05 level based on the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The regionally averaged heavy (R10mm) and very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) and consecutive wet days (CWD) showed no significant trends during the past 54 years; however, several individual extreme precipitation events, such as the flood of 1998 in the SHB, were well detected by these indices. The regionally averaged consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (R 2 = 0.79, P b 0.01) at a rate of 0.22 days/year from 1960 to 2013. All of the stations exhibited statistically significant increases in CDD, excluding the Tongyu station in the western basin. The monthly RX5day values were highest in summer, from June to August, in the SHB; a peak occurred in July (67.5 mm) in the SHB during 1960-2013. The CI peaked in July, with the highest value of 0.2 in the SHB during 1960-2013. However, the two lowest CI values occurred in spring and fall, with values of −0.56 and −0.41, respectively. During April and May, when most of the spring drought events occur, a prevalent trend does not exist; moreover, almost no stations have statistically significant CI increases. In August and September, respectively 79% and 97% of the stations exhibited a CI negative trend, but only 2 and 6 stations showed significant decreases at the 0.05 level. The increasing extreme climate events present a challenge for local water resources management.

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Section: Extreme Precipitation and Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Song

Sun

et al. 2015

Atmospheric Research

152

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“…Annual missing value is excluded from the analysis when calculating the linear trend. The 95% confidence intervals are calculated from tabulated values [Kendall, 1955]. The significance of the trends is determined using an iterative procedure [Wang and Swail, 2001;X.…”

Section: You Et Al: Changes In Climate Extremes In the Tibetan Plateaumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhang et al, 2005], Central America and northern South American [Aguilar et al, 2005], and central and south Asia [Klein Tank et al, 2006]. Global changes in daily climate extremes have been analyzed [Alexander et al, 2006;Frich et al, 2002].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

et al. 2008

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[1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are analyzed on the basis of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation at 71 meteorological stations with elevation above 2000 m above sea level in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) during . Twelve indices of extreme temperature and nine indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming during the studied period, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Stations in the northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern TP have larger trend magnitudes. The regional occurrence of extreme cold days and nights has decreased by À0.85 and À2.38 d/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.26 and 2.54 d/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows statistically significant decreasing at the rate of À4.32 and À2.46 d/decade, respectively. The length of growing season has statistically increased by 4.25 d/decade. The diurnal temperature range exhibits a statistically decreasing trend at a rate of À0.20°C per decade. The extreme temperature indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. In general, warming trends in minimum temperature indices are of greater magnitude than those for maximum temperature. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends in the southern and northern TP and show decreasing trends in the central TP. On average, regional annual total precipitation, heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, average wet days precipitation, and total precipitation on extreme wet days show nonsignificant increases. Decreasing trends are found for maximum 5-day precipitation, consecutive wet days, and consecutive dry days, but only the last is statistically significant.

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“…This criterion should be rather general and not depend on a specific statistical distribution, enabling the measure of coherency to be used with many different data sets and variables. Therefore, the extreme events were defined as exceedance of a percentile-based threshold (Salinger and Griffiths, 2001;Klein Tank et al, 2006;Donat et al, 2010). This threshold was calculated separately for each station by computing sample percentiles for every year within the analysis period and then averaging these yearly percentiles over the whole period.…”

Section: Analysis Of Simultaneous Extreme Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial coherency of extreme weather events in Germany and Switzerland

Wernli¹

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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With a simple statistical approach, the spatial representativeness of extreme events in daily meteorological surface observations from Germany and Switzerland is analysed. A percentile-based definition of extremes is employed, and the frequency of simultaneously occurring extreme events at different stations is used as a measure for their spatial coherency. The largest representativeness is diagnosed for daily temperature extremes, i.e. hot and cold days, which very often occur simultaneously at many stations. On the contrary, precipitation extremes usually are restricted to local or regional scales. The spatial coherency of wind gust maxima is intermediate between the other extremes and depends on station location and terrain complexity. For cold extremes, station altitude has a strong influence on the spatial coherency of the events. It is argued that the spatial representativeness of extreme weather events directly relates to the importance of a coherent large-scale atmospheric forcing, compared to more local factors, for triggering these events. In particular, large-scale advection is the most important driver of temperature extremes. Strong wind gusts are often caused by midlatitude cyclones over the North Sea. The results from this study can also be used to assess the spatial representativeness of extreme weather reconstructions from proxy data in paleoclimate studies.

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Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia

Cited by 407 publications

References 18 publications

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

Spatial coherency of extreme weather events in Germany and Switzerland

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