Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs

Abstract

BackgroundThe coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown.MethodsWe used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply.ResultsBetween 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%–27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%–55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%–16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%–76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only.ConclusionsDespite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience—such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets—should be prioritized.

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

“…Recent examples include the 2007–2008 global food crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, a major exporter of agricultural products (Ali et al, 2020 ; FAO, 2022 ; Janssens et al, 2020 ; Sperling et al, 2022 ). Climate change could also contribute to future shocks in food trade, highlighting the importance of considering the climate resilience of trading partners (Gaupp et al, 2020 ; Hadida et al, 2022 ). Diversifying trade partners can spread the risk of supply disruptions and allows for more flexible adjustments in case of climate shocks or export difficulties in a specific country or region.…”

“…Intra-African trade is low compared to other continents, and trade between regional economic communities remains limited (Janssens et al, 2022 ). Although The Gambia has regional trade partners like Senegal, its largest trade partners are currently in South America, Europe, and Asia (Hadida et al, 2022 ). Overcoming these barriers and strengthening regional trade relationships could contribute to a more coherent and resilient food supply in future.…”

Socio-economic and food system drivers of nutrition and health transitions in The Gambia from 1990 to 2017

“…There is little documentation on informal cross-border trade of fruit and vegetables within the West African region despite recent efforts ( CILSS, 2021 ). However, a recent study that performed a comprehensive country-of-origin tracing of fruit and vegetables imports showed that between 1988 and 2018, The Gambia largely imported fruit and vegetables from climate stable countries outside the West Africa region ( Hadida et al, 2022 ). The low supply of fruit and vegetables is consistent with evidence from a national survey which showed that only 7% of adults aged 25–64 years consumed five servings of fruit and vegetables per day in The Gambia ( Government of Gambia, 2010 ).…”