Changes in carbon intensity globally and in countries: Attribution and decomposition analysis

Xiao, Hao; Sun, Kejuan; Bi, Huimin; Xue, Jinjun

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.158

Cited by 35 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…This is mainly due to the development of hydropower in Yunnan, and its non-fossil energy consumption accounts for much higher proportions than other provinces. Some other studies have also obtained similar results (Xiao et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2018).…”

supporting

confidence: 72%

Analyzing Driving Forces of China’s Carbon Emissions From 1997-2040 and the Potential Emission Reduction Path: Through Decomposition and Scenario Analyses

Song

Zhao

Wang

2021

Preprint

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To assess the evolution trend of China's carbon emissions (CEs) and related driving factors, this paper used scenario analysis to predict China's CEs from 2017 to 2040 at the industrial level. Then, LMDI decomposition model was applied to evaluate the driving forces of CEs changes during 1997-2040. Finally, the ST-LMDI model was used to explore the CEs reduction potential and the potential reduction path at provincial level. The results showed that (1) as the reduction of energy intensity cannot offset the growth of industrial scale, the CEs of all industries have shown an increasing trend from 1997 to 2017; (2) In the current policy scenario, China's CEs cannot reach the peak before 2040. And only in the sustainable development scenario, the CEs of the three industries will all reach the peaks before 2030. And the development of non-fossil energy will reduce CEs by more than 30%; (3) Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Heilongjiang are key provinces and improving energy efficiency of the secondary industry is a potential way to promote CEs reduction.

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supporting

confidence: 72%

Analyzing Driving Forces of China’s Carbon Emissions From 1997-2040 and the Potential Emission Reduction Path: Through Decomposition and Scenario Analyses

Song

Zhao

Wang

2021

Preprint

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“…Remarkably, consumption (and to a lesser extent population) growth have mostly outrun any beneficial effects of changes in technology over the past few decades. These results hold for the entire world 22,23 as well as for numerous individual countries 11,[24][25][26] . Figure 1 shows the example of changes in global-material footprint and greenhouse-gas emissions compared to GDP over time.…”

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confidence: 54%

Scientists’ warning on affluence

et al. 2020

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For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology. The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions. We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change.R ecent scientists' warnings confirm alarming trends of environmental degradation from human activity, leading to profound changes in essential life-sustaining functions of planet Earth 1-3 . The warnings surmise that humanity has failed to find lasting solutions to these changes that pose existential threats to natural systems, economies and societies and call for action by governments and individuals.The warnings aptly describe the problems, identify population, economic growth and affluence as drivers of unsustainable trends and acknowledge that humanity needs to reassess the role of growth-oriented economies and the pursuit of affluence 1,2 . However, they fall short of clearly identifying the underlying forces of overconsumption and of spelling out the measures that are needed to tackle the overwhelming power of consumption and the economic growth paradigm 4 . This perspective synthesises existing knowledge and recommendations from the scientific community. We provide evidence from the literature that consumption of affluent households worldwide is by far the strongest determinant and the strongest accelerator of increases of global environmental and social impacts. We describe the systemic drivers of affluent overconsumption and synthesise the literature that provides possible solutions by reforming or changing economic systems. These solution approaches range from reformist to radical ideas, including degrowth, eco-socialism and eco-anarchism. Based on these insights, we distil recommendations for further research in the final section. Affluence as a driver of environmental and social impactsThe link between consumption and impacts. There exists a large body of literature in which the relationship between environmental, resource and social impacts on one hand, and possible explanatory variables on the other, is investigated. We review and summarise those studies that holistically assess the impact of human activities, in the sense that impacts are not restricted to

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“…The vast consumption of fossil fuels has generated various challenges to human society, for instances, the growing supply–demand imbalance in the global energy market [5] , the risk of oil reserve depletion [6] , greenhouse gas emissions [7] , etc. Moreover, due to the large volume of carbon dioxide emitted by using fossil fuels, the global temperature has risen by roughly 1.0 °C above the pre-industrial level [8] , [9] . If carbon emissions continue to increase at the current rate, the temperature is predicted to climb by 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052 [10] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%