Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

Bîrsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Micu, Dana; Cheval, Sorin

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1290-5

Cited by 46 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…4b), suggesting that the NAO might be a useful predictor for the annual flow in the above-mentioned regions, and also emphasizing the orographic effect of the Carpathian Mountains on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the region (e.g., Birsan et al 2014b), most mountain basins being poorly correlated with the NAO). These results are in agreement with previous findings concerning linkages between NAO and Romanian Streamflow (e.g., Rimbu et al 2002;Ionita et al 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Monthly Natural Streamflow in Romania and Linkages to Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

Bîrsan

2015

Water Resour Manage

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Natural and reconstructed monthly streamflow records from 172 river basins in Romania (143 with full records and 29 with less than 10 % missing values) have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for the period 1956-2005. The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on a monthly basis. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The monthly flow presents upward trends from August to January, and predominantly downward trends from February to June. The most important changes are the increasing streamflow trends from September till November, which are well explained by the increase in autumn precipitation. The annual streamflow shows a dependence on latitude, with increasing trends in the northern part, and decreasing in the south. Strong negative correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the mean annual streamflow have been found in western and southern Romania, highlighting the influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on Romanian annual streamflow in these areas, as well as the important orographic role of the Carpathian Mountains.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Monthly Natural Streamflow in Romania and Linkages to Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

Bîrsan

2015

Water Resour Manage

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“…Regionally, significant differences were also found in terms of temperature dynamics. The results of various studies, based on mean/extreme temperatures, indicated an evident climate warming (in all seasons, except for autumn) in high altitude areas-in the Carpathian Mountains (Croitoru et al 2012b;Birsan et al 2014;Cheval et al 2014;Croitoru et al 2014)-, as well as outside the mountainous region, such territories mainly consisting of lowlands (Piticar and Ristoiu 2012;Croitoru and Piticar 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961–2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania

Prăvălie

Bandoc

Patriche

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Climate change analysis is essential, considering the numerous economic and ecological implications of this critical global environmental issue. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal trends of mean air temperature in Romania's most important agricultural area, the south and south-eastern region, between 1961 and 2009. In this respect, multiannual (the entire period) and multidecadal ) trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method at 23 weather stations, annually, seasonally and for the growing season of the region's main agricultural crops (maize and wheat). Multiannually, the results showed statistically significant temperature increases, on all temporal scales (maximum rate of 0.06°C/year recorded in summer, equivalent to a net temperature rise of 2.82°C), except for the autumn season (cooling without statistical significance). Multidecadally, the 1961-1990 period is marked by a general cooling, especially in autumn (maximum values of -0.07°C/year or over 2°C net cooling). In the 1971-2000 and 1981-2009 periods, a general warming was observed (maximum in summer for both multidecades, when positive rates peaked at 0.09°C/year, or 2.5-3°C net warming), but the warming of the last three decades is the most prominent in terms of spatial average magnitude and trend significance. Upon analysis of the impact of climate warming on agricultural yields (maize) through linear regression, in the 1991-2000 decade, considered as case study, it was found that in 32 % of the total analyzed area there are evident relationships between the two variables (p value \0.05). In this case, a dependency of 33-50 % (40 %, on average) of maize to climate was found, and a sensitivity (loss) ranging between 0.9 and 1.5 t/ha/year (1.2 t/ha/year, on average) for a 1°C temperature rise. At the same time, significant losses (of up to 1.7 t/ha/year) of maize for a 1°C temperature rise were identified in 51 % of the area, but with little p value significance (between 0.05 and 0.1). It is however necessary to analyse the agro-climatic results cautiously, considering that only one decade of climate-agriculture relationship was studied. The results can be useful first and foremost for mitigating the climate change impact on agricultural systems, by prioritizing future adaptation strategies enforced by policy makers.

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“…Birsan et al . () reported a consistent increase of the temperature in the summer days, and Busuioc et al . () documented a predicted rise in the mean temperature of 3.1 °C by 2100.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Analysing the period 1961-2010, Cheval et al (2014) found significant increasing temperatures for most months, whereas precipitation trends were positive only in September and October. Birsan et al (2014) reported a consistent increase of the temperature in the summer days, and Busuioc et al (2010) documented a predicted rise in the mean temperature of 3.1 ∘ C by 2100. In order to understand the impacts of climate change on mountain areas in the Western Carpathians, the Beliş district was selected for the application and implementation of a method for assessing climate effects on groundwater resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Climate change effects on groundwater resources: a new assessment method through climate indices and effective precipitation in Beliş district, Western Carpathians

Nistor

Dezsi

Cheval

et al. 2016

Meteorological Applications

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Climate change is a topic of enormous interest due to its direct impact and long-term consequences. The ongoing climate warming is triggering global impacts and it is likely to alter natural systems at the local scale, too. The observed climate variability in the Romanian Carpathians has been tackled by several researchers and the negative impact of climate change on groundwater vulnerability has also been assessed. A temporal analysis of four climate indices (De Martonne, UNEP Index, Johansson Continentality Index and Pinna Combinative Index) and crop evapotranspiration over the past 50 years was performed to understand the climate trends in the Beliş district, to estimate the effective precipitation in the area and to assess the effects of climate change on groundwater resources. Land cover data were extracted from satellite images and crop evapotranspiration data were evaluated based on field co-efficients. An examination of the climate index trends and change points was carried out using the Rodionov test. In the study area, the climate indices indicated very humid and marine climate conditions. At the same time, it was noticed that the crop evapotranspiration values increased from 1961 to 2013 and the annual effective precipitation ranged between 200-300 mm. In order to understand the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, an innovative method was proposed using an inference matrix that combines the climate indices and effective precipitation. Based on this method, the climate indices and effective precipitation for four decades indicated a low impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Beliş district.

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Changes in annual temperature extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

Cited by 46 publications

References 38 publications

Trends in Monthly Natural Streamflow in Romania and Linkages to Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

Trends in Monthly Natural Streamflow in Romania and Linkages to Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961–2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania

Climate change effects on groundwater resources: a new assessment method through climate indices and effective precipitation in Beliş district, Western Carpathians

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