Summary:This article discusses and reviews advanced forms of serial morphometry in the context of a disease progression model in multiple sclerosis (MS). This model of disease activity distinguishes between overall disease activity and the proportion thereof that becomes permanent damage. This translates into a progression model that features a repair potential, which, when exhausted, marks the conversion or progression from relapsing to progressive disease. The level of repair capacity at a given time determines the rate of progression. Both clinical and MRI variables appear to be in support of such a model. We examine possible MRI markers for this repair capacity, particularly the short-term behavior of new MRI lesions, quantified by methods of time-series analysis-that is, capturing lesion dynamics in the form of MRI intensity change directly, rather than shape or volume change. Lower rates of individual lesion recovery may represent lower repair and greater proximity to a progressive stage. Individuals with low transient lesion turnover appear to undergo more rapid progression and atrophy. Because disease-modifying therapies aim to alter the pathophysiological chain of inflammation, demyelination, and axonal loss, a therapeutic effect may therefore be more readily apparent as a change in lesion dynamics and recovery rate and level, rather than a change in total lesion burden or enhancing lesion number. Key Words: Multiple sclerosis, disease modeling, serial MRI, morphometry, lesion evolution, repair.
THE REPAIR POTENTIAL HYPOTHESISMore than 80% of newly diagnosed cases of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS) fall into the relapsingremitting (RRMS) category. A large proportion of RRMS patients eventually convert to a secondary progressive stage (SPMS) within 6 -10 years. 1,2 The hallmark of this stage is a progressive worsening of disability in the absence of relapses, and a shift from inflammatory to degenerative activity, apparent on MRI as fewer contrast-enhancing lesions and accelerated brain parenchymal atrophy (FIG. 1). The etiology of this progression is not known, but a premise commonly offered is that of a threshold effect and the exhaustion of structural and functional redundancy, leading from inflammatory and relapsing to more diffuse and accelerated accrual of damage.Here we review and discuss this progression model, focusing on the concept of a hypothesized repair potential as a marker for progression. Of particular interest is the possibility of obtaining early MRI markers of this repair potential from advanced forms of serial quantitativ MRI. As new therapies with alternative mechanisms (other than broad or targeted immune suppression) become available to MS patients, specific markers that reliably predict long-term progression early in the disease are becoming increasingly critical.A growing body of evidence is congruent with a repair potential model: histopathological analyses have revealed a shift from focal inflammatory activity in RRMS to diffuse damage in SPMS 3 and overall reduced...