Changepoints in the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Record

Robbins, Michael W.; Lund, Robert; Gallagher, Colin; Lu, QiQi

doi:10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10023

Cited by 52 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…3, which strongly suggests there is a change in the average around the fiftieth observation, i.e., in 2000 for the 1951-2008 data. Our results are similar to those obtained by Robbins et al (2011) (see Sect. 5 therein), who notice changes in North Atlantic tropical storm patterns circa 1930 and 1995. In the third study, we consider the relationship between the number of tropical storms Y , the maximum sustained winds To implement this, we simulate the bivariate series X usingμ andˆ .…”

Section: Tropical Storm Data Analysissupporting

confidence: 93%

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Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms

Chatterjee

2014

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. Exponential family statistical distributions, including the well-known normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions, are overwhelmingly used in data analysis. In the presence of covariates, an exponential family distributional assumption for the response random variables results in a generalized linear model. However, it is rarely ensured that the parameters of the assumed distributions are stable through the entire duration of the data collection process. A failure of stability leads to nonsmoothness and nonlinearity in the physical processes that result in the data. In this paper, we propose testing for stability of parameters of exponential family distributions and generalized linear models. A rejection of the hypothesis of stable parameters leads to change detection. We derive the related likelihood ratio test statistic. We compare the performance of this test statistic to the popular normal distributional assumption dependent cumulative sum (Gaussian CUSUM) statistic in change detection problems. We study Atlantic tropical storms using the techniques developed here, so to understand whether the nature of these tropical storms has remained stable over the last few decades.

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Section: Tropical Storm Data Analysissupporting

confidence: 93%

“…There are several studies in recent times on whether, and how, the properties of these storms have changed with climate change; see for example Robbins et al (2011). Such storms can do immense harm to life and property, consequently a change in their patterns is of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms

Chatterjee

2014

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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“…The current data contain information on storms between 1851 and 2010. A changepoint analysis of the data through 2008 conducted in Robbins, Lund, Gallagher, and Lu (2011) found changepoints in several measured variables in the early to mid 1960's. Satellites were fully implemented for cyclone surveying in the mid 1960 s, and their introduction also likely improved the accuracy of measured wind speeds.…”

Section: Example 1: Tropical Cyclones In the Atlantic Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the above reasons we consider only data from 1968-2010. A changepoint test in Robbins, Lund, Gallagher, and Lu (2011) indicated a significant change in the frequency of storms around 1995. We therefore divide storms into two groups 1968-1994 (n 1 = 258) and 1995-2010 (n 2 = 236).…”

Section: Example 1: Tropical Cyclones In the Atlantic Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing Equality of Nonparametric Quantile Regression Functions

Kuruwita¹,

Gallagher²,

Kulasekera³

2014

IJSP

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This article proposes a new approach for testing the equality of nonparametric quantile regression functions based on marked empirical processes. We develop test statistics that posses better Type I and power properties in comparison to all available procedures in the literature. Simulation results also indicate that our tests have superior local power properties over existing tests. A data analysis is given which highlights the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

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“…The probability structure of these sequences change in several of k categories. Robbins, Lund and Gallagher (2011) discussed categorical change-points and their application to climate change. Other applications include modeling a change in the likelihood that a customer will buy one of several brands of a product, and the likelihood that a drug will have a certain effect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of Changes in a Multinomial Process

Brown¹

2012

IJSP

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We look at a multinomial distribution where the probabilities of landing in each category change at some unknown integer. We assume that the probability structure both before and after the change is known, and the problem is to find the probability that the probability structure has changed. For a loss function consisting of the cost of late detection and a penalty for early stopping, we develop, using dynamic programming, the one and two steps look ahead Bayesian stopping rules. We provide some numerical results to illustrate the effectiveness of the detection procedures. We show that the two step ahead procedure is a slight improvement over the one step ahead procedure. However the two procedures are very consistant in their stopping times.

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Changepoints in the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Record

Cited by 52 publications

References 48 publications

Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms

Instability and change detection in exponential families and generalized linear models, with a study of Atlantic tropical storms

Testing Equality of Nonparametric Quantile Regression Functions

Detection of Changes in a Multinomial Process

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