Change-point detection and trend analysis in monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature and precipitation series in Bartın province in the western Black Sea region of Turkey

Abstract

Studies associated with climate change and variability are of great importance at both the global and local scale in the global climate crisis. In this study, change-point detection and trend analysis were carried out on mean, maximum, minimum air temperatures and total precipitation based on monthly, seasonal and annual scale in Bartın province located in the western Black Sea Region of Turkey. For this aim, 4-different homogenei-ty tests (von Neumann test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test and standard normal homogeneity test) for change-point detection, Modified Mann–Kendall test and Şen’s innovative trend test for trend analysis, and Sen’s slope test for the magnitude estimation of trends were used. According to the test results, the summer temperatures in particular show increasing trends at the 0.001 significance level. Mean maximum temperature in August, mean minimum temperature in June and August, and mean temperature in July and August are in increasing trend at the 0.001 significance level. Over a 51 year period (1965–2015) in Bartın province, the highest rate of change per decade in air temperatures is in August (0.55°C for Tmax, 0.46°C for Tmin and 0.43°C for Tmean) based on Sen’s slope. However, the study showed that apart from October precipitation, there is no significant trend in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in Bartın. Increasing trends in mentioned climate variables are also visually very clear and strong in Şen’s innovative trend method, and they comply with the statistical results. As a result, the study revealed some evidence that temperatures will increase in the future in Bartın and its environs.

Homogeneity and Change Point Detection Analysis of Seasonal and Annual Precipitation and Temperature Series Van, Türkiye

“…In past studies, homogeneity analysis was applied to the total precipitation, maximum, minimum, and average temperature series in different regions of Turkey. When we examine the studies conducted, we can observe that while the homogeneity of the temperature series has deteriorated (Ay, 2020;Yaman & Ertuğrul 2020), it is generally homogenous in the precipitation series , Hırca ve Eryılmaz Türkkan, 2020, Yaman & Ertuğrul 2020, Koycegız & Buyukyıldız 2020. These studies were found to be similar to the results of our results regarding the Van region.…”

The Effect of Climate on the Radial Growth of Scots Pine (Pinus Sylvestris L.) in a Coastal Mixed Stand in Kapisuyu, Bartin, Turkey

“…Despite the lack of water deficiency in the summer months, it can be stated that narrower tree-rings are formed in the years with higher maximal August temperature in this site. Maximum air temperatures in August has shown an increasing trend in Bartın province (Yaman & Ertuğrul 2021). The chain reaction mechanisms of trees to climate and environmental factors are very complicated.…”

An analysis of the spatial and temporal changes on the Jakobshavn Glacier (Greenland) using remote sensing data

“…The melting of the ice caps, in addition to significantly raising the level of the waters of the All-ocean, affects weather changes all over the world. An example of continuous temperature rises in the Bartin province located in the western Black Sea Region of Turkey has already been provided elsewhere (Yaman 2020).…”