Change and continuity in the fertility of unpartnered women in Latin America, 1980–2010

Abstract

BACKGROUND Over the last decades, the proportion of children born to unmarried mothers has been increasing in Latin America while unmarried cohabitation has become more common. One would expect the former to be a consequence of the latter and that the proportion of children born to unpartnered mothers remained stable or decreased. However, recent research has shown that the proportion of the total fertility rate (TFR) that is attributable to unpartnered women has, in fact, increased. OBJECTIVE This paper aims at understanding the increase in the share of the TFR attributable to unpartnered women in Latin America. METHODS We use census data and the own-children method to measure the evolution of fertility by conjugal union status. We use Poisson regression and a multivariate decomposition technique to examine the respective contributions of changes in the composition of the population and changes in the effects of the characteristics of the population on the changes in fertility. RESULTS In most countries the proportion of unpartnered women has increased. Their fertility has increased in some countries but decreased in others. In countries where it has decreased, it has done so at a slower pace than the fertility of partnered women, thus increasing the share of fertility that is attributable to unpartnered women.

On Increasing Divorce Risks

“…Instead, the results indicated that even for the cohort born after 1975, the breadwinner model is still relevant, as the probability of a divorce is significantly reduced if the husband is fully employed. These findings are partially in line with those of Vignoli et al (2018), who found that female employment is not associated with marital stability in Germany and Hungary. Moreover, there is clear empirical evidence that in many countries, female employment is not related to marital stability, and that female employment does not account for the cohort effects on the divorce rate (Wagner et al 2015).…”

“…The results of empirical research on the effects of female employment on marital instability have been highly contradictory (Oppenheimer 1997). It is unclear whether female employment causes marital instability, given that either selection or anticipation might be responsible for the association between the two factors (Stevenson and Wolfers 2007;Vignoli et al 2018). The findings of macro and micro studies on the association between female employment and marital stability have differed (see Ruggles 1997b), as have the findings of analyses of this relationship across countries and historical time.…”

Divorce Trends in Seven Countries Over the Long Transition from State Socialism: 1981–2004

“…No difference in divorce rates was found in Russia between women who worked and women who did not work in periods during socialism and after the transition (Muszyńska 2008). Vignoli et al (2018) found no effect of women's employment on divorce in Hungary, but employed women have higher risks of divorce than unemployed women in Poland. An earlier study of the 1940-1992 marriage cohorts in Hungary showed an increased risk of divorce for employed women (Bukodi and Róbert 2003).…”

Families in Latin America: Trends, Singularities, and Contextual Factors

“…Roughly one out of four women aged 35-39 fall into this category, and an upward trend can be observed over the past three decades. These data should be interpreted with caution, though, since the absence of a coresiding partner might be due to reasons other than union dissolution, such as migration (Nobles 2011(Nobles , 2013DeWaard et al 2018) or out-of-union childbearing (Laplante et al 2018). Nevertheless, these trends are consistent with prior studies showing a marked rise in female headship (Arias & Palloni 1999).…”