Challenges in Modelling Social Conflicts: Grappling with Polysemy

Neumann, Martín; Braun, Andreas; Heinke, Eva-Maria; Saqalli, Mehdi; Srbljinović, Armano

doi:10.18564/jasss.1818

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The fire activity data for Kazakhstan and Mongolia can be estimated from 1985 to 2017, as shown in Fig. 7, based on the recently released Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) long-term fire history (Otón et al, 2019). This new information extends the analysis to before our observed decrease during the 2002-2016 period and shows that fire activity only increased in Kazakhstan during the economic collapse and the associated reduction in livestock around the year 2000.…”

Section: Grassland Fires and Grazingmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…Paleo-fire reconstructions have already captured grazing as a keystone process through dung fungi spore residues in sediments (Cordova et al 2019). Current modeling develop-ments cover disease projections (Perry et al 2013), and modeling efforts are increasingly devoted to the more complex human aspect, including human consumption behavior, inequality, and subsequent potential issues (Motesharrei et al 2016) or social conflicts (Neumann et al 2011). Our study demonstrates that grazing can be highly variable as a fast response to or abrupt change in agricultural policies or political regime.…”

Section: Modeling Fire and Grazing Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Northern Eurasia is currently highly sensitive to climate change. Fires in this region can have significant impacts on regional air quality, radiative forcing and black carbon deposition in the Arctic which can accelerate ice melting. Using a MODIS-derived burned area dataset, we report that the total annual area burned in this region declined by 53 % during the 15-year period from 2002 to 2016. Grassland fires dominated this trend, accounting for 93 % of the decline in the total area burned. Grassland fires in Kazakhstan contributed 47 % of the total area burned and 84 % of the decline. A wetter climate and increased grazing are the principle driving forces for the decline. Our findings (1) highlight the importance of the complex interactions of climate–vegetation–land use in affecting fire activity and (2) reveal how the resulting impacts on fire activity in a relatively small region such as Kazakhstan can dominate the trends in burned areas across a much larger landscape of northern Eurasia.

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Section: Grassland Fires and Grazingmentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Modeling Fire and Grazing Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016

et al. 2021

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“…(The new (military) field of HSCB modelling deals with many problems well known from (civilian) social simulation. Consequently, most of the issues raised by Tolk et al 2 can also be found in papers on social simulation (see Grüne-Yanoff, 9 Churchman, 31 Küppers and Lenhard, 32 Windrum, 33 Moss, 34 Garson, 35 Brenner and Werker, 36 Rossiter et al 37 and Neumann 38 ).) Scientific communities often try to establish disciplines dealing with such new challenges by defining the so-called ‘body of knowledge’ governing questions and applicable solutions.…”

Section: The Challenge Of Decision-making In Complex Social Systemsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Simulation-based exploratory data generation and analysis (data farming): a critical reflection on its validity and methodology

Hofmann¹

2013

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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Data farming' is based on the idea that simulation models run thousands of times can provide insights into the possible consequences of different options. However, the validity of the models used for data farming, especially in the context of HSCB (human, social, cultural and behavioural) modelling for decision-making and future studies, is at least questionable. This paper first reflects on the epistemological aspects of this predicament in order to illustrate its fundamental severity. Then, a possible solution is presented that is based on the notion of 'bad models', the concept of plausibility, and the method of simulation-based weak point analysis. The approach can be complemented by interactive war gaming. Such a systematic approach appears more defendable than most attempts to use HSCB models for affirmative purposes, and is methodologically easier to implement since it solely requires focusing on the validation of empirically amenable microprocesses.

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“…Finally, one may find difficult to not acknowledge the importance of social networks (e.g. Roux this volume; see also Lemieux, 1976;Collier et al, 2009;Amblard et al, 2010;Filho et al, 2011;Neumann et al, 2011;Gabbriellini, 2014;Neumann and Lotzmann, 2016;Thiriot, 2018).…”

Section: Socio-anthropology As An Unavoidable Sciencementioning

confidence: 99%

Introducing Qualitative and Social Science Factors in Archaeological Modelling: Necessity and Relevance

Linden

Saqalli

2019

Integrating Qualitative and Social Science Factors in Archaeological Modelling

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Despite having been a pedigree stretching for several decades, computational approaches remain highly debated in archaeology, hailed by some as the future of the discipline, and discarded by some as a poor, arrogant and overgeneralizing attempt at mimicking the past. This introductory chapter argues that traditional criticisms made at computational models stem from several fundamental misunderstandings. In particular, several archaeologists favouring either a more "social theory" perspective or a more "fieldwork first and avoid generalizing" approach have negatively commented upon what they perceived as simple models when compared to the complex, holistic nature of social life. We argue here that modelling scientific teams, combining archaeologists and modellers, are aware of these complexity and uncertainty and rather prefer to tackle it by explicitly focusing upon a minimal set of epistemological procedures, concepts and parameters, set in an explicitly formal environment. The implications of this epistemological standpoint are evaluated in view of the various contributions to this volume, presented at the end of this contribution.

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Challenges in Modelling Social Conflicts: Grappling with Polysemy

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016

Wetter environment and increased grazing reduced the area burned in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2016

Simulation-based exploratory data generation and analysis (data farming): a critical reflection on its validity and methodology

Introducing Qualitative and Social Science Factors in Archaeological Modelling: Necessity and Relevance

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