Challenges and Uncertainties in Hydrological Modeling of Remote Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) Basins: Suggestions for Calibration Strategies

Pellicciotti, Francesca; Buergi, Cyrill; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Konz, M.; Shrestha, A. B.

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-11-00092.1

Cited by 141 publications

(156 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(12 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

149

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Consequently, substantial uncertainty remains in water budgets simulated for this region, as highlighted by Savéan et al (2015). In this context, groundbased measurements condensed in small areas have been shown to enhance the characterization of local variability in orographic processes (Andermann et al, 2011;Pellicciotti et al, 2012;Immerzeel et al, 2014). However, although the Everest region is one of the most closely monitored areas of the Himalayan Range, valuable observations remain scarce.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Eeckman¹,

Chevallier²,

Boone³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. This paper provides a new representation of the effect of altitude on precipitation that represents spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the Everest region. Exclusive observation data are used to infer a piecewise linear function for the relation between altitude and precipitation and significant seasonal variations are highlighted. An original ensemble approach is applied to provide non-deterministic water budgets for middle and high-mountain catchments. Physical processes at the soilatmosphere interface are represented through the Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) surface scheme. Uncertainties associated with the model parametrization are limited by the integration of in situ measurements of soils and vegetation properties. Uncertainties associated with the representation of the orographic effect are shown to account for up to 16 % of annual total precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration is shown to represent 26 % ± 1 % of annual total precipitation for the mid-altitude catchment and 34% ± 3 % for the high-altitude catchment. Snowfall contribution is shown to be neglectable for the mid-altitude catchment, and it represents up to 44 % ± 8 % of total precipitation for the highaltitude catchment. These simulations on the local scale enhance current knowledge of the spatial variability in hydroclimatic processes in high-and mid-altitude mountain environments.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Eeckman¹,

Chevallier²,

Boone³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Hydrological modelling and hydrological climate change impact assessments of mountainous and glacierised catchments are plagued with complications and uncertainties (Klemeš, 1990;Schaefli, 2005;Pellicciotti et al, 2012). Strongly heterogeneous processes such as glacier dynamics, orographic precipitation and permafrost are paired with low observation densities, often 20 resulting in severe data scarcity for hydrological modelling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When modelling glacierised catchments, using accurate precipitation (at least on annual basis) is important to achieve realistic glacier mass balances, rather than compensating underestimated precipitation with increased glacier melting. In this regard, glacier models have proven useful tools in finding accurate correction factors and gradients with elevation when a near-glacier equi-30 librium is assumed or mass balances are known, as was done in Immerzeel et al (2012) and Immerzeel et al (2015). Both studies use a simple degree-day glacier melt model to show that measured precipitation underestimates glacier accumulation by factors of 2-10 in multiple glacier catchments of the Indus headwaters.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is a more dynamic approach than the combination of two linear functions proposed by Immerzeel et al (2012). c is effectively the greatest correction applied, while the altitude m is the physical limit of the atmosphere to lose more moisture.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…precipitation correction and glacier melt. Our multi-objective calibration scheme reduces the overall uncertainty of discharge simulations in mountainous catchments with insufficient observations and has been achieved before with similar approaches, such as using remotely sensed snow cover data in conjunction with discharge (Duethmann et al, 2014), the output of regional climate models as weights for a discharge-based precipitation correction (Duethmann et al, 2014) or a precipitation correction solely based on a glacier equilibrium assumption (Immerzeel et al, 2012). Thus, the glacier dynamics module integrated 5 into the hydrological model SWIM and the multi-objective calibration procedure are specifically adapted to such data-scarce catchments.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Bridging glacier and river catchment scales: an efficient representation of glacier dynamics in a hydrological model

Wortmann

Bolch

Krysanova

et al. 2016

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Glacierised river catchments have been shown to be highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations depend on the water resources originating from them. Hydrological models are used to aid water resource management, yet their treatment of glacier processes is either rudimentary in large applications or linked to fully distributed glacier models that prevent larger model domains. Also, data scarcity in mountainous catchments has hampered the implementation of physically based approaches over entire river catchments. A fully integrated glacier dynamics module was developed for the eco-hydrological 5 model SWIM (SWIM-G) that takes full account of the spatial heterogeneity of mountainous catchments but keeps in line with the semi-distributed disaggregation of the hydrological model. The glacierised part of the catchment is disaggregated into glaciological response units that are based on subbasin, elevation zone and aspect classes. They seamlessly integrate into the hydrological response units of the hydrological model SWIM. Robust and simple approaches to ice flow, avalanching, snow accumulation and metamorphism as well as glacier ablation under consideration of aspect, debris cover and sublimation 10 are implemented in the model, balancing process complexity and data availability. The fully integrated is also capable of simulating a range of other hydrological processes that are common for larger mountainous catchments such as reservoirs, irrigation agriculture and runoff from a diverse soil and vegetation cover. SWIM-G is initialised and calibrated to initial glacier hypsometry, glacier mass balance and river discharge. While the model is intended to be used in medium to large river basins with data-scarce and glacierised headwaters, it is here validated in the data-abundant catchment of the Upper Rhone River, 15Switzerland and the data-scarce catchment of the Upper Aksu River, Kyrgyzstan/NW China.

show abstract

The value of satellite‐derived snow cover images for calibrating a hydrological model in snow‐dominated catchments in Central Asia

Duethmann

Peters

Blume

et al. 2014

Water Resources Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Including satellite-derived snow cover data for hydrologic model calibration can be a good way to improve model internal consistency. This study applied a multiobjective genetic algorithm to characterize the trade-off curve between model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover area (SCA). Using a Monte Carlo-based approach, we further investigated the additional information content of an increasing number of SCA scenes used in the calibration period. The study was performed in six snowmeltdominated headwater catchments of the Karadarya Basin in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, using the hydrological model WASA and snow cover data from four melt seasons retrieved from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer). We generally found only small trade-offs between good simulations with respect to discharge and SCA, but good model performance with respect to discharge did not exclude low performance in terms of SCA. On average, the snow cover error in the validation period could be reduced by very few images in the calibration period. Increasing the number of images resulted in only small further improvements. However, using only a small number of images involves the risk that these particular images cause the selection of parameter sets which are not representative for the catchment. It is therefore advisable to use a larger number of images. In this study, it was necessary to include at least 10-16 images.

show abstract

Challenges and Uncertainties in Hydrological Modeling of Remote Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) Basins: Suggestions for Calibration Strategies

Cited by 141 publications

References 39 publications

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Bridging glacier and river catchment scales: an efficient representation of glacier dynamics in a hydrological model

The value of satellite‐derived snow cover images for calibrating a hydrological model in snow‐dominated catchments in Central Asia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About