Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

Abstract

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.

Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review

“…The indirect effects on livestock come through impacts on fodder quantity and quality and pests and disease. The most important direct effects of climate change on animals would be thermal stress (cold and heat) and water availability, while the major indirect effects are expected to be from livestock diseases [7,78].…”

“…To cope with reductions in the length of growing season and NPP (e.g., in Australia), the risk of soil erosion should be considered and controlled in the adaptations adjusting ground cover threshold, particularly in relation to grazing intensity [10]. Further research is required to focus on impact of climate change on animal diseases, and welfare generally, as previously there are a limited number of previous studies [78,84].…”

The changes of climate may threat the production of Grana Padano cheese: past, recent and future scenarios

“…Numerous evidences prove that the climate is changing with effects on human life and activities. Animal agriculture systems are needed to supply food but they are likely to be affected by climate, through an indirect effect on feed production ( € Ozkan et al 2016) and a direct impact on animal welfare, production and reproduction (Bernabucci et al 2010). The increase of temperature, the concentration of pouring rains and the lengthening of droughts are weather features related to climate change that may threaten crops yield and carrying capacity of rangelands in south Europe with the reduction of the suitable areas for traditional agricultural activities (Olesen and Bindi 2002;Nardone et al 2010).…”

Livestock Under Climate Change: A Systematic Review of Impacts and Adaptation

“…The main direct impacts reported include reduced immunity to infections (e.g., due to heat stress), increased development rates of pathogens, and prevalence of infectious diseases during extreme weather events [6,57]. Indirect impacts are attributed to variations in temperature and rainfall, which included increase in persistence and abundance of disease vectors and parasites, host resistance to infectious agents, and changes in the severity of human-livestock diseases [41,58]. Moreover, several authors identified extreme examples of climate driven livestock diseases, such as ruminants' helminthological infections [42] (e.g., nematode infections in cattle [43]), avian influenza [59], higher clinical mastitis incidence in dairy cows [60], and parasitic diseases (e.g., movement of tick-borne infestations [61]).…”