Challenges and opportunities in developing decision support systems for risk assessment and management of forest invasive alien species

Abstract

Biological invasions represent an increasing threat to ecosystems worldwide, with negative ecological and socio-economic impacts, whereas risk assessment and management remain challenging. The development of decision support systems (DSS) has the potential to help decision-makers and managers mitigate invasive species, but few DSS exist for forest invasive alien species (FIAS). The use of DSS in forestry is not new but they represent an asset in decision making in times of increasing complexity of issues foresters face and factors to consider. Yet, few forest DSS address the problem of FIAS. In this review, we identify key elements of the FIAS risk-assessment and management decision-making process, discuss these elements with a model-based DSS development perspective, and summarize outstanding challenges and opportunities for FIAS DSS development. FIAS DSS should not only estimate the probability of FIAS invasion but also consider forest vulnerability and quantify exposure (i.e., value at risk), while allowing different threat scenarios and possible solutions to be compared. Such a complete risk assessment and management calls for integrative modelling approaches that explicitly link different components of FIAS invasion, management, and impact assessment into a DSS. Such integrative modelling is challenging and may require collaboration among experts of different domains. International collaboration is also needed to facilitate data exchange, as the lack of data is one of the main challenges. In many cases, data and ecological knowledge of invasive species are too limited (in quantity or quality) to constitute useful input to DSS or their components (e.g., species distribution model). Another challenge is to better consider the multiple sources of uncertainties inherent to modelling invasions (e.g., host preferences and behavior, forest vulnerability, potential impacts, and cost and benefits of mitigation actions) when assessing FIAS risk and communicating results from risk assessment. Communication with stakeholders and DSS end-users, in fact, appears as one of the keys to successful DSS development and appropriation, not only to ensure that they correspond to end-users’ needs but also to ensure ease of use, functionality, and good visualization of DSS outputs.

Editorial: Forest insect invasions – risk mapping approaches and applications

“…Pest risk models and maps are key tools for assessing the risk posed by such threats as they enable quantification and visualization of the invasion and damage potential of non-native pests ( 20 ). They may incorporate transport pathways, known or presumed responses to one or more environmental drivers and/or the dispersal capacity of invasive species to predict their seasonal activity (phenology) and population dynamics or to predict the likelihood of pest introduction, establishment, and spread ( 21 , 22 ). A wide range of modeling methods are available, such as correlative (e.g., ecological niche models), semi-mechanistic (e.g., CLIMEX), and process-based approaches (e.g., insect phenology models) ( 20 , 22 , 23 ).…”

“…A wide range of modeling methods are available, such as correlative (e.g., ecological niche models), semi-mechanistic (e.g., CLIMEX), and process-based approaches (e.g., insect phenology models) ( 20 , 22 , 23 ). When integrated with impact assessments, pest risk models can be used for decision support to guide management and surveillance strategies ( 21 ). This editorial aims to summarize published articles that cover the above-mentioned aspects under the Research Topic, Forest Insect Invasions – Risk Mapping Approaches and Applications, highlighting the latest work in predictive modeling and pest surveillance.…”