Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain

Zhang, Hai‐Lin; Zhao, Xin; Yin, Xiaohong; Liu, Shengli; Xue, Jian-Fu; Wang, Meng; Pu, Chao; Lal, Rattan; Chen, Fu

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1337-y

Cited by 85 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Due to the interaction of monsoon climate with the complex topography in East Asia, China has suffered from long-lasting and severe droughts during the second half of twentieth century, which has caused significant socio-economic and eco-environment damages to the country (Yong et al 2013;Yang et al 2015;Zhang H L et al 2015). With the increasing temperature and changing distribution of precipitation, the drought risk is expected to increase further (Sillmann et al 2013;Wang and Chen 2014) and subsequently make crop production more uncertain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it has experienced serious droughts and water scarcity problems in recent years (Yong et al 2013), which has been the limiting factor for agricultural production (Zhang H L et al 2015). Furthermore, water limitation is likely to be accentuated by increased food demand, soil quality deterioration and over-exploitation of groundwater resources .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Jiang

Garré

et al. 2017

Journal of Integrative Agriculture

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain), which is the grain production base in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics (drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) for the past 50 years and under future scenarios , based on the observed meteorological data and the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation (SPEI-PM) and the Thornthwaite equation (SPEI-TH) to trace the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using "run theory" for both historical observations and future RCP 8.5 scenario based on proper index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, the past 50 years have experienced reduced drought of shorter duration, and of weaker severity and intensity. However, under the future RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with the historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would bring in differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Jiang

Garré

et al. 2017

Journal of Integrative Agriculture

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several studies show that among cultivated staple food crops in the region, summer maize is the most vulnerable to climate variability and climate change (Tao and Zhang 2011;Chen et al 2012;Zhang et al 2014Zhang et al , 2015. Other studies also suggest that warming climate trends in the past several decades have had negative effects on maize production in the region (Liu et al 2010;Chen et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009

Xiao

Tao

2015

Int J Biometeorol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.

show abstract

“…Finally, climate warming will greatly increase the risk index of pests during the crop growing period, especially in spring. All these factors mean that climate warming will significantly increase the cost of grain production (Zhang et al, 2015b). …”

Section: Increased Investment In Grain Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Warming: Does Northwest China Face a Stark Food Security Challenge?

Guoju¹

2016

Appl Ecol Env Res

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change, and Northwest China is an area sensitive to climate change. This review paper summarizes the impacts of climate warming on crop production in typical arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China. Over the last 50 years, the climate has undergone a series of changes, including higher temperatures, increased drought and warmer winters. The future climate will become warmer and drought will become more severe. This will result in accelerated crop growth, more damage by crop pests, degraded soil, a decline in rain resource utilization, serious effects on the crop growing environment, weakening of agricultural ecological system stability, increased fluctuation in grain yield, difficulty in adjusting crop planting structure, threatened food nutrition and security, increased grain production costs, and risk and uncertainty in grain security. Taking scientific measures to actively keep pace with climate change will be a key strategy for reducing grain security risks in Northwest China.

show abstract

Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain

Cited by 85 publications

References 18 publications

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981–2009

Climate Warming: Does Northwest China Face a Stark Food Security Challenge?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About