Ch. 8: Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Groffman, P. M.; Kareiva, Peter; Carter, S.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Mack, Michelle C.; Matzek, Virginia; Tallis, Heather

doi:10.7930/j0td9v7h

Cited by 31 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 157 publications

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“…Most of these species rely on tree-dwelling insects for food to refuel before heading farther north to their breeding grounds. Climate change is expected to affect the phenological patterns of trees, including the timing of spring leaf out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf drop in the fall (Groffman et al 2014). Shifts in the availability of resources will certainly affect wildlife, but the degree to which different species are affected will vary depending on their life history traits and level of specialization.…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Phenological changes throughout the Midwest are already underway (Groffman et al 2014). For example, extreme early and sustained warm-ups have occurred several times in the last two decades in the upper Midwest.…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is already rearranging the geography of biological communities (Groffman et al 2014). Some wildlife species will be able to track these changes and keep up with the movement of their "climate envelope."…”

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Brandt¹,

Lewis²,

Scott³

et al. 2017

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The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21 st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region's urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species.We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urb...

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Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Key Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Brandt¹,

Lewis²,

Scott³

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Climate change poses an ongoing and increasing threat to ecological systems (McCarty, 2001;Walther et al, 2002;Parmesan & Yohe, 2003;Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2010;Groffman et al, 2014;IPCC, 2014). Climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are therefore a critical tool for understanding, mitigating, and managing effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function (Cramer et al, 2001;McMahon et al, 2011;Pacifici et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Sofaer

Barsugli

Jarnevich

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

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“…Coupled with the impacts of changing climates, these nonnatives present a substantial threat to biological diversity [2]. The United States spends approximately $120 billion per year managing introduced plants and animals, including the costly impacts associated with impaired ecosystem services [3, 4]. Invasive, nonnative insects pose a particular challenge to management because these insects frequently have no natural enemies and feed on novel hosts that lack defensive abilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America

2016

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The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these variables were not as predictive as spring and fall conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

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Ch. 8: Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Cited by 31 publications

References 157 publications

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness pilot project

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America

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