Ch. 26: Decision Support: Connecting Science, Risk Perception, and Decisions. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Moss, Richard H.; Scarlett, P.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Kunreuther, Howard; Lempert, R. J.; Manning, John T.; Williams, B. K.; Cloyd, Emily; Kaatz, L.; Patton, Lindene

doi:10.7930/j0h12zxg

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…To be effective, a local drought information systemor any other decision support system-must be responsive to the technical and human resource capacity constraints of those who develop the information as well as those of the intended users (Dilling and Lemos 2011;Moss et al 2014). As we found with the Hopi drought plan's monitoring protocol, when the decision support system does not match local technical capacity, it becomes impossible to use effectively.…”

Section: Hdnr Information Use Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rain Gauges to Range Conditions: Collaborative Development of a Drought Information System to Support Local Decision-Making

Ferguson

Masayesva

Meadow

et al. 2016

Weather, Climate, and Society

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Drought monitoring and drought planning are complex endeavors. Measures of precipitation or streamflow provide little context for understanding how social and environmental systems impacted by drought are responding. Here the authors report on collaborative work with the Hopi Tribe-a Native American community in the U.S. Southwest-to develop a drought information system that is responsive to local needs. A strategy is presented for developing a system that is based on an assessment of how drought is experienced by Hopi citizens and resource managers, that can incorporate local observations of drought impacts as well as conventional indicators, and that brings together local expertise with conventional science-based observations. The system described here is meant to harness as much available information as possible to inform tribal resource managers, political leaders, and citizens about drought conditions and to also engage these local drought stakeholders in observing, thinking about, and helping to guide planning for drought.

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Section: Hdnr Information Use Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rain Gauges to Range Conditions: Collaborative Development of a Drought Information System to Support Local Decision-Making

Ferguson

Masayesva

Meadow

et al. 2016

Weather, Climate, and Society

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“…This process entails engagement between scientists and decision makers to assess climate-related problems and identify what information or resources can help to address those problems. In cases where existing information is not useful, efforts frequently focus on providing new syntheses or analyses or developing new tools to meet decisionmaking needs (Moss et al, 2014;NRC 2009). But, despite advances and efforts to communicate the potential benefits and limits of climate change information, users (or potential users) of this information often have misconceptions about its use and usefulness.…”

Section: Climate Change Information For Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Water Resources in the Carolinas: Approaches to Applying Global Climate Change Information to Local Decisions

Lackstrom¹,

Carbone²,

Tufford³

et al. 2016

JSCWR

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A wide range of resource managers, community planners, and other stakeholders are increasingly asking for information regarding how climate change will affect South Carolina’s freshwater and coastal resources. They are interested in using this information for decisions related to infrastructure design, water system planning, vulnerability assessments, and ecosystem management. While climate change data, projections, and related information are also becoming increasingly available, many uncertainties around future climate change and its potential impacts often hinder its application. Furthermore it is often not available in a format or at a scale that is easily translated to local- and regional resource management decisions. This article highlights decision-maker questions about climate change in the Carolinas, approaches to using global climate change information, and opportunities to bridge the gap that often exists between scientific research and applications. We find that integration of future climate scenarios with water resources issues succeeds when robust links exist between climate variables and system response, and when scenarios from observed or simulated climate data are representative, plausible, and consistent. In general, there is no one “best” model that depicts future climate conditions, nor can climate science provide accurate predictions for specific locations and impacts. However, climate change projections can be used in conjunction with a variety of other tools and resources, such as vulnerability assessments and historical climate observations, to inform planning processes. Improved understanding of the system of concern, the linkages to climate, and the most important variables can help decision makers and researchers alike to develop the most relevant and informative analyses for climate-related questions. Ongoing engagement, as well as a willingness to experiment and share lessons learned, between and across the resource management and science communities will help to advance the climate change dialogue in the Carolinas and enhance the production and use of climate change information.

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“…This framework should include methods to introduce flexibility into infrastructure designs to manage uncertain future climate impacts and also uncertain future socioeconomic and policy trends ). In addition, these processes need to incorporate the values and goals of the stakeholders, the evolving scientific literature, the available information and the perception of risk (Moss et al 2014;Chang et al 2014). One applicable method is to use Robust Decision Making (RDM) (Lempert et al 2006;Groves and Lempert, 2007), which is an iterative, quantitative approach designed for conditions of deep uncertainty, such as the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts.…”

Section: Impacts Of Increased Temperatures As Shown Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…RDM provides a means to incorporate both well established and imprecise data into the analysis, identify new strategies more robust than those previously considered, and help stakeholder groups with different interests and expectations participate more effectively in the analysis. Other methods, such as Capabilities-Based Planning (Samaras and Willis, 2013), Scenario Planning (Moss et al 2014), and coupled energy-infrastructure-adaptation systems modeling (Schaeffer et al 2012;Koch and Vögele, 2009) could be also used to characterize the choices that engineers and stakeholders face.…”

Section: Impacts Of Increased Temperatures As Shown Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate

Olsen¹

2015

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Ch. 26: Decision Support: Connecting Science, Risk Perception, and Decisions. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Cited by 22 publications

References 94 publications

Rain Gauges to Range Conditions: Collaborative Development of a Drought Information System to Support Local Decision-Making

Rain Gauges to Range Conditions: Collaborative Development of a Drought Information System to Support Local Decision-Making

Climate and Water Resources in the Carolinas: Approaches to Applying Global Climate Change Information to Local Decisions

Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate

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