Ch. 19: Great Plains. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Shafer, Mark; Ojima, Dennis S.; Antle, John M.; Kluck, Douglas R.; McPherson, Renee A.; Petersen, Sven; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Sherman, Kenneth

doi:10.7930/j0d798bc

Cited by 72 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…However, in terms of physical age, determined on the basis of total storage capacity lost to sedimentation (about 6% as of 2012) and mean annual sedimentation rate (about 0.1%), Cheney Reservoir is a young reservoir with a slow aging rate according to a classification developed by Juracek (2014). Given that the number of days of heavy precipitation is not expected to change substantially in response to climate change during the next several decades in the central Great Plains (including the Cheney Reservoir basin) (Shafer et al 2014) and that a recent modeling study predicted that sediment loads would not differ over the twenty-first century in a primarily agricultural Midwest basin (Ahmadi et al 2014), it is reasonable to project that the current sedimentation rate will continue into the future. Assuming the same mean annual sedimentation rate, the reservoir would lose 50% of its original capacity in about 500 years, or about the year 2465.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

Stone¹,

Juracek²,

Graham³

et al. 2015

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

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Cheney Reservoir, constructed during 1962 to 1965, is the primary water supply for the city of Wichita, the largest city in Kansas. Sediment is an important concern for the reservoir as it degrades water quality and progressively decreases water storage capacity. Long-term data collection provided a unique opportunity to estimate the annual suspended sediment loads for the entire history of the reservoir. To quantify and characterize sediment loading to Cheney Reservoir, discrete suspended sediment samples and continuously measured streamflow data were collected from the North Fork Ninnescah River, the primary inflow to Cheney Reservoir, over a 48-year period. Continuous turbidity data also were collected over a 15-year period. These data were used together to develop simple linear regression models to compute continuous suspended sediment concentrations and loads from 1966 to 2013. The inclusion of turbidity as an additional explanatory variable with streamflow improved regression model diagnostics and increased the amount of variability in suspended sediment concentration explained by 14%. Using suspended sediment concentration from the streamflow-only model, the average annual suspended sediment load was 102,517 t (113,006 tn) and ranged from 4,826 t (5,320 tn) in 1966 to 967,569 t (1,066,562 tn) in 1979. The sediment load in 1979 accounted for about 20% of the total load over the 48-year history of the reservoir and 92% of the 1979 sediment load occurred in one 24-hour period during a 1% annual exceedance probability flow event (104-year flood). Nearly 60% of the reservoir sediment load during the 48-year study period occurred in 5 years with extreme flow events (9% to 1% annual exceedance probability, or 11-to 104-year flood events). A substantial portion (41%) of sediment was transported to the reservoir during five storm events spanning only eight 24-hour periods during 1966 to 2013. Annual suspended sediment load estimates based on streamflow were, on average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

Stone¹,

Juracek²,

Graham³

et al. 2015

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

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“…Projected increases in maximum temperatures will intensify evaporative demand and may increase the risk of significant wildfire events. Minimum temperatures will be elevated (Shafer et al 2014), increasing the number of heating degree days each year and extending the freeze-free season by up to 30 days (Kunkel et al 2013a). While the extended growing season could benefit some regions, the actual number of growing days will likely decrease when water deficits are considered (Mora et al 2013).…”

Section: Exposurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large parts of Oklahoma and Texas are projected to experience longer droughts, with the number of consecutive dry days increasing by up to 5 days (Shafer et al 2014). As a result, regional droughts-particularly Bflash droughts^ (Otkin et al 2016)-may increase in number and intensity.…”

Section: Exposurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, regional droughts-particularly Bflash droughts^ (Otkin et al 2016)-may increase in number and intensity. When precipitation does occur, it is likely to be more intense, with a 10-15% increase in maximum 1-day precipitation totals across the region by 2065 (Shafer et al 2014). Heavier downpours will present additional management challenges due to flash flooding and increased soil erosion (Ojima et al 2015).…”

Section: Exposurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change

et al. 2017

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Projections of greater interannual and intrannual climate variability, including increasing temperatures, longer and more intense drought periods, and more extreme precipitation events, present growing challenges for agricultural production in the Southern Plains of the USA. We assess agricultural vulnerabilities within this region to support identification and development of adaptation strategies at regional to local scales, where many management decisions are made. Exposure to the synergistic effects of warming, such as fewer and more intense precipitation events and greater overall weather variability, will uniquely affect rain-fed and irrigated cropping, high-value specialty crops, extensive and intensive livestock production, and forestry. Although the sensitivities of various agricultural sectors to climatic stressors can be difficult to identify at regional scales, we summarize that crops irrigated from the Ogallala aquifer possess a high sensitivity; rangeland beef cattle production a low sensitivity; and rain-fed crops, forestry, and specialty crops intermediate sensitivities. Numerous adaptation strategies have been identified, including drought contingency planning, increased soil health, improved forecasts and associated decision support tools, and implementation of policies and financial instruments for risk management. However, the extent to which these strategies are adopted is variable and influenced by both biophysical and socioeconomic considerations. Inadequate local-and regional-scale climate risk and resilience information suggests that climate vulnerability research and climate adaptation approaches need to include bottom-up approaches such as learning networks and peer-to-peer communication.

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“…Houston, Texas, USA with its subtropical climate is a typical example for a city which will probably suffer tremendously of frequent heat waves, dry periods and heavy rain events as well as hurricanes (IPCC, 2013;Mueller et al, 2005). During the past year, temperatures in Houston, Texas have risen by 3.3˚F and exceed on some days temperatures of 100˚F (around 37.7˚C), as happened during the drought year 2011 (Shafer et al, 2014). By the year 2100, climate predictions expect around 70 days of temperatures over 100˚F…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate and the Urban Heat Island Effect on Urban Tree Growth in Houston

Moser¹,

Uhl²,

Rötzer³

et al. 2017

OJF

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The growing conditions of urban trees differ substantially from forest sites and are mainly characterized by small planting pits with less water, nutrient and aeration availability, high temperatures and radiation inputs as well as pollution and soil compaction. Especially, global warming can amplify the negative effects of urban microclimates on tree growth, health and well-being of citizens. To quantify the growth of urban trees influenced by the urban climate, ten urban tree species in four climate zones were assessed in an overarching worldwide dendrochronological study. The focus of this analysis was the species water oak (Quercus nigra L.) in Houston, Texas, USA. Similar to the overall growth trend, we found in urban trees, water oaks displayed an accelerated growth during the last decades. Moreover, water oaks in the city center grew better than the water oaks growing in the rural surroundings of Houston, though this trend was reversed with high age. Growth habitat (urban, suburban, rural and forest) significantly affected tree growth (p < 0.001) with urban trees growing faster than rural growing trees and forest trees, though a younger age of urban trees might influence the found growth patterns. Growing site in terms of cardinal direction did not markedly influence tree growth, which was more influenced by the prevalent climatic conditions of Houston and the urban climate. Higher temperatures, an extended growing season and eutrophication can cause an accelerated growth of trees in urban regions across, across all climatic zones. However, an accelerated growth rate can have negative consequences like quicker ageing and tree death resulting in higher costs for new plantings and tree management as well as the decrease in ecosystem services due to a lack of old trees providing greatest benefits for mitigating the negative effects of the urban climate.

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Ch. 19: Great Plains. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Cited by 72 publications

References 57 publications

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change

Effects of Climate and the Urban Heat Island Effect on Urban Tree Growth in Houston

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