Objective-To evaluate whether demographic and sonographic factors associated with spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) among nulliparous women with a cervical length (CL) < 30 mm could be combined into an accurate prediction model for sPTB.Methods-Secondary analysis of a trial of nulliparous women with a singleton gestation, a CL <30 mm on transvaginal ultrasound between 16 and 22 weeks, and who lacked other risk factors for spontaneous (e.g., prior cervical excisional procedure) or medically-indicated preterm birth (e.g., chronic hypertension), who were randomized to either 17 hydroxyprogesterone caproate or placebo. Risk factors associated with sPTB within the entire cohort were identified using univariable analysis. Factors significantly associated (P < 0.05) with sPTB were included in multivariable logistic regression analyses to determine whether an accurate prediction model could be developed.Results-Of the 657 randomized patients, 109 (16.6%) had sPTB less than 37 weeks of gestation. Logistic regression analysis revealed only cervical length (OR 1.06 per 1 mm decrease, 95% CI 1.02-1.10) to be associated with sPTB. The area under the ROC curve based on this regression was low (AUC: 0.63, 95% CI 0.58-0.69). Results were similar for the outcome of sPTB < 34 weeks.Conclusions-An accurate prediction model for sPTB among nulliparous women with a short cervix could not be developed.
Keywords cervical length; prediction; spontaneous preterm birthIt is well established that the midtrimester sonographic length of the cervix is associated with the chance of preterm birth. 1 By convention, the 10 th percentile of cervical length for the population has been used to indicate women at "high risk" of preterm birth. At 22-24 weeks gestation, the 10 th percentile is approximately 25 mm, although between 16 and 22 weeks (when women typically receive their anatomic survey and cervical length screening) the 10 th percentile is 30 mm. 1-3 Among nulliparous women, a short cervix is the risk factor with the highest population attributable risk for preterm birth. 4 Nevertheless, even though the presence of a short cervix increases the chance of spontaneous preterm birth, many nulliparous women with this finding will still deliver at term. For example, among nulliparous women in the United States, a cervical length less than the 10 th percentile in the second trimester conveys a risk of preterm birth of approximately 25%. 1,3 That is, the majority of nulliparous women classified as "high risk" will actually deliver at term. These nulliparous women, whose short cervix has been a false positive finding with respect to spontaneous preterm birth, may receive medical treatments (e.g. progesterone), unproven interventions (e.g., bed rest), and experience anxiety because of their high-risk classification. [6][7][8] Some investigators previously have attempted, without success, to elucidate other factors in addition to cervical length that could assist in prediction of preterm birth. 9 However, the
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