Central Europe, 1531–1540 CE: The driest summer decade of the past five centuries?

Abstract

Abstract. Based on three drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index) reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental records, the summers of 1531–1540 were identified as the driest summer decade during the 1501–2015 period in the Czech Lands. Based on documentary data, extended from the Czech scale to central Europe, dry patterns of various intensities (represented, for example, by dry spells, low numbers of precipitation days, very low rivers, and drying-out of water sources) occurred in 1532, 1534–1536, 1538, and particularly 1540, broken by wetter or normal patterns in 1531, 1533, 1537, and 1539. Information relevant to summer droughts extracted from documentary data in central Europe was confirmed in summer precipitation totals from a multi-proxy reconstruction for Europe by Pauling et al. (2006) and further by self-calibrated summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction from tree ring widths in Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) by Cook et al. (2015). The summer patterns described are consistent with the distribution of sea level pressure deviations from a modern reference period. Summer droughts were responsible for numerous negative impacts, such as bad harvests of certain crops, reduction and lack of water sources, and frequent forest fires, while in the wetter summers central Europe was affected by floods. However, there are no indications of severe impacts of a multi-country or multi-year effect. Reconstructions based on documentary data indicate that the summers of 1531–1540 constitute the driest summer decade in central Europe for the past five centuries between 1501 and 2010 CE.

Tracking fire activity and post-fire limnological responses using the varved sedimentary sequence of Lake Jaczno, Poland

“…The use of historical data in paleostudies has enjoyed a growing interest in past decades providing a more accurate understanding of the past climate variability (Brázdil et al, 2020). Climate changes in the past were often diachronic and significantly different at different locations (Martel et al, 2018).…”

“…A 3-year period, AD 1472-1474, can be considered a long dry period, peaking with the megadrought in AD 1473, which occurred in almost the whole of Europe. The period before AD 1540, when one of the most severe droughts in Europe occurred, can be considered unusually dry (Brázdil et al, 2020). Dry years were more prevalent in the 1580s, with extreme drought in AD 1590 and in the beginning of the 1680s.…”

On the economic impact of droughts in Central Europe. The decade from 1531 to 1540 from the Polish perspective

“…The driest summer decade of the past five centuries? (Brázdil et al, 2020). As we see it, our study should possibly be treated…”

“…A direct inspiration for this study can be found in the article published in 2020 in the "Climate of the Past" entitled Central Europe, 1531−1540 CE:The driest summer decade of the past five centuries? (Brázdil et al, 2020). As we see it, our study should possibly be treated…”

Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin

“…This drought was probably the most severe in Central Europe for centuries, perhaps even for more than two millennia (Büntgen et al 2021 ). One has to go back to the first half of the sixteenth century to find heat and drought of comparable magnitudes in this region (Brázdil et al 2020 ; Büntgen et al 2021 ; Orth et al 2016 ; Wetter et al 2014 ). In 2022, large parts of Europe experienced yet another exceptional drought, but our analysis focuses on the years 2018–2020 owing to the lagged availability of socio-economic data.…”