Central Bank Structure, Policy Efficiency, and Macroeconomic Performance: Exploring Empirical Relationships

Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Krause, Stefan

doi:10.20955/r.84.47-60

Cited by 98 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…As Cunningham et al (2010) point out, both approaches have advantages and 1 Central bank credibility is understood as the difference between inflation expectations of economic agents and the central bank's inflation target or forecast (e.g. Faust and Svensson, 2001;Hutchison and Walsh, 1998;Cecchetti and Krause, 2002). Such measures of central bank credibility are consistent with the definitions proposed by Blinder (2000) …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

Łyziak

Paloviita

2017

European Journal of Political Economy

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The selection and refereeing process for this paper was carried out by the Chairs of the Task Force. Papers were selected based on their quality and on the relevance of the research subject to the aim of the Task Force. The authors of the selected papers were invited to revise their paper to take into consideration feedback received during the preparatory work and the referee's and Editors' comments. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayThe paper is released to make the research of LIFT generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to final publication. The views expressed in the paper are the ones of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB, the ESCB, or any of the ESCB National Central Banks.ECB Working JEL: D84, E52, E58 Keywords:Inflation expectations, anchoring, survey data, euro area, financial crisis. ECB Working Paper 1945, August 2016 2 Non-technical summaryThis paper examines the anchoring of survey-based measures of inflation expectations in the euro area. We consider inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers for 1999Q1-2015Q3. In the case of the professional forecasters, we use one-year ahead, two-years ahead and 4-5-years ahead inflation forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), conducted every quarter. In the case of consumers, we use the European Commission Consumer survey, which provides a unique set of harmonised monthly data on 12-months ahead consumer inflation expectations across the EU economies. As the survey question is qualitative, we quantify consumer inflation expectations using the probability approach.We analyse anchoring of inflation expectations in the EMU period and pay special attention to possible changes in anchoring over the last few years, a period characterized by low inflation, increased economic uncertainty, zero lower bound (ZLB), and unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we examine the responsiveness of inflation expectations to actual inflation and the reaction of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term ones. Then, we analyse the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations to the ECB inflation target and extend this analysis to describe the behaviour of short-and medium-term inflation expectations. The novelty of our approach is in assessing the effectiveness of two main communication tools used by the ECB, the inflation target and the ECB inflation projections provided by the Eurosy...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

Łyziak

Paloviita

2017

European Journal of Political Economy

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“…In this section, we compute performance measures to identify the contribution of different monetary policy strategies to the observed differences in macroeconomic performance between inflation targeters and nontargeters. Following Cecchetti and Krause (2002) and Cecchetti, Flores-Lagunes, and Krause (2006), we estimate an inflation and output variability efficiency frontier that allows us to derive measures of economic performance and monetary policy efficiency.…”

Section: Inflation Volatility Output Volatility and Monetary Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?

2007

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“…Harusnya ini Cecchetti dan Krause (2002). Jika bank sentral kredibel maka ekspektasi inflasi masyarakat atau para pelaku ekonomi akan mendekati atau hampir sama dengan target inflasi bank sentral.…”

Section: Analisis Dan Pembahasanunclassified

Meninjau Kembali Seberapa Penting Target Inflasi Bank Indonesia Dalam Mengontrol Laju Inflasi

Hakim¹

2017

EKUITAS

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Central Bank Structure, Policy Efficiency, and Macroeconomic Performance: Exploring Empirical Relationships

Cited by 98 publications

References 15 publications

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?

Meninjau Kembali Seberapa Penting Target Inflasi Bank Indonesia Dalam Mengontrol Laju Inflasi

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