Cenários Climáticos Futuros Para O Paraná: Oportunidades Para O Setor Florestal

Melo, Lara Clímaco de; Sanquetta, Carlos Roverto; Corte, Ana Paula Dalla; Filho, Jorim Souza das Virgens

doi:10.5380/abclima.v16i0.41149

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…This socioeconomic effect was also observed in studies carried out on other continents [ 19 , 72 , 73 ]. Regions with higher development indices generally present a protection factor for cardiovascular diseases, a result corroborated by other studies in other countries in which socioeconomic differences represent a difference in the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases according to social class [ 63 , 64 ]. As for deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases, the MHDI had less impact on health outcomes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…The maximum and minimum temperatures showed a tenuous and constant increasing tendency in most regions, and the relative humidity varied according to the region and the rainfall rates [ 64 , 65 , 66 ]. The climate of the study area, as well as that of Brazil, showed an increase in the thermal amplitude, making it possible to observe regional differences in climate and health outcomes, which was also observed by [ 67 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study

Silva

Wikuats

Hashimoto

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The gradual increase in temperatures and changes in relative humidity, added to the aging and socioeconomic conditions of the population, may represent problems for public health, given that future projections predict even more noticeable changes in the climate and the age pyramid, which require analyses at an appropriate spatial scale. To our knowledge, an analysis of the synergic effects of several climatic and socioeconomic conditions on hospital admissions and deaths by cardiorespiratory and mental disorders has not yet been performed in Brazil. Statistical analyses were performed using public time series (1996–2015) of daily health and meteorological data from 16 metropolitan regions (in a subtropical climate zone in South America). Health data were stratified into six groups according to gender and age ranges (40–59; 60–79; and ≥80 years old) for each region. For the regression analysis, two distributions (Poisson and binomial negative) were tested with and without zero adjustments for the complete series and percentiles. Finally, the relative risks were calculated, and the effects based on exposure–response curves were evaluated and compared among regions. The negative binomial distribution fit the data best. High temperatures and low relative humidity were the most relevant risk factors for hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (lag = 0), while minimum temperatures were important for respiratory diseases (lag = 2 or 3 days). Temperature extremes, both high and low, were the most important risk factors for mental illnesses at lag 0. Groups with people over 60 years old presented higher risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, while this was observed for the adult group (40-59 years old) in relation to mental disorders. In general, no major differences were found in the results between men and women. However, regions with higher urbanization levels presented risks, mainly for respiratory diseases, while the same was observed for cardiovascular diseases for regions with lower levels of urbanization. The Municipal Human Development Index is an important factor for the occurrence of diseases and deaths for all regions, depending on the evaluated group, representing high risks for health outcomes (the value for hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases was 1.6713 for the female adult group in the metropolitan region Palmas, and the value for hospitalization for respiratory diseases was 1.7274 for the female adult group in the metropolitan region Campo Mourão). In general, less developed regions have less access to adequate health care and better living conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study

Silva

Wikuats

Hashimoto

et al. 2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Similar results were found byMelo, Sanquetta, Corte and Virgens Filho (2015) andSantos et al (2020) who observed air temperature increases in all climate scenarios projected for the Paraná State. Considering the more pessimistic scenario of the IPCC, the largest increases occurred in the northwest and northeast regions, and the smallest increases occurred in the central-southern region of Paraná.…”

supporting

confidence: 88%

Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

et al. 2021

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Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

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“…Potential distribution modeling is an alternative tool for mapping potential areas for adaptation of species, using a smaller number of variables that would be required by the zoning method, making possible the extrapolation of species occurrence projections in future scenarios, according to global climate change (Bader et al, 2008;Melo et al, 2015). However, it has limitations and should be used in conjunction with other tools to aid decision-making (Garcia et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NATURAL DISTRIBUTION OF Myracrodruon urundeuva FR. ALL. IN BRAZIL AT CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS DUE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

et al. 2022

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In this work, the prediction of the distribution of M. urundeuva Fr. All. was performed based on the region of natural occurrence of the species. Its geographic coordinates were obtained from online databases CRIA and SpecialLinks, from scientific articles and fieldwork carried out by Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Ilha Solteira, São Paulo, Brazil. M. urundeuva is a native tree species with great potential for commercial use in Brazil. For this purpose, ecological niche modeling was used, with current layers of climate variables and layers prepared for future climate scenarios, according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4/IPCC), using Worldclim data on Brazil. With the Open Modeller and ArcGIS programs, maps were generated to predict its occurrence for the current period and future climate scenarios, made according to the projections of global climate changes. With the projection of increases in temperature and precipitation in the area where the species occurs, it tends to migrate to areas of Brazil where the climate is currently milder, in the south and southeast regions. Due to climatic changes, the species tends to undergo changes in distribution and area size until 2080. It was projected for Caatinga and Pantanal, in both periods, an increase in area, while for the Cerrado, in the first period, the area increased, and, for the second, it decreased. Therefore, according to the results of the maps of future projections for the next decades, it is concluded that there will be changes in the distribution of M. urundeuva, with a significant reduction of the potential area of occurrence in the region.

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Cenários Climáticos Futuros Para O Paraná: Oportunidades Para O Setor Florestal

Cited by 8 publications

References 3 publications

Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study

Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study

Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

NATURAL DISTRIBUTION OF Myracrodruon urundeuva FR. ALL. IN BRAZIL AT CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS DUE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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