Cenários climáticos da radiação solar global baseados no modelo regional HadRM3 para o Estado do Acre

Delgado, Rafael Coll; Oliveira, José Francisco de; Góis, Givanildo de; Lyra, Guilherme Bastos

doi:10.1590/2179-8087.082214

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The areas with the lowest values of global solar radiation are shown in Figure 1, these areas can function as islands of freshness, mainly in the A1B intermediate scenario ofIPCC, for the baseline climatology . According to the study developed by Delgado et al (2014) in the State of Acre, the water bodies help to maintain the islands of freshness, since these islands do not reflect the energy received in the infrared range and still present low reflectivity. Another study emphasizes the river corridors as controllers of the environmental quality of a region, one of its attributions being the establishment of adequate climate control conditions (ÉRICA et al, 2011).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is widely known that the increase in the occurrence of environmental disasters caused by anthropic actions that lead to global and regional climate change is a topic currently widely debated around the world, fomenting discussions in the scientific and governance sphere over the Planet (DELGADO et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the context of climate changes, numerous physical-mathematical models have been used by several researchers in different regions of the globe and scenarios, such as the HadRM3 regional model used in the Western Amazon region by Justino et al, 2013 andDelgado et al (2014) and the CIMP5 model used by Zomer et al (2014) in Yunnan Province, China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Jesus¹,

Delgado²,

Pereira³

et al. 2018

Biosci. J.

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The objective of this study was to perform a temporal and spatial analysis of the changes in the past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing data in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for the baseline period (1961-1990). Data from two climate models-the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, were used for the A1B intermediate scenario, data from Conventional Weather Stations and orbital sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1). The results of the Spatial Dependence Degree indicate that the best model to represent the global solar radiation is CCCMA-Exponential dry 70.01 and rainy 0.21 respectively. It was possible to verify that in places where the areas are occupied by forests there was reduction of global solar radiation for both dry and rainy periods of approximately 13 MJ m-2 d-1. These results indicate that these forest areas can function as islands of freshness, while maintaining the thermal comfort balanced. It was concluded that the dry period had the highest values of solar radiation compared to the rainy (57%), which can be justified by the occurrence of fires in Rio de Janeiro.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Jesus¹,

Delgado²,

Pereira³

et al. 2018

Biosci. J.

Self Cite

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“…Previously, projections of surface solar radiation change for multiple regions of the world have been derived from CMIP3 climate models by Ruosteenoja and Räisänen (2013; Europe and northern Atlantic Ocean), Anandhi et al (2014; Malaprabha River basin in India), Delgado et al (2014;western Brazil), and Saenz and Huang (2015;North America). Correspondingly, global-scale projections calculated from the most recent (CMIP5) ensemble of models have been published by Wild et al (2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Incident Surface Solar Radiation and Contributing Factors in India in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

Ruosteenoja

Räisänen

Devraj

et al. 2019

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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To support the planning of future solar energy production in India, forthcoming changes in incoming surface solar radiation and the main physical factors contributing to the change were inferred from simulations performed with 27 global CMIP5 climate models. According to the multimodel-mean response, radiation diminishes by 0.5%–4% by the period 2030–59 (relative to 1971–2000), in tandem with strengthening aerosol and water vapor dimming. The largest reduction is anticipated for northern India. The evolution of incident radiation in the mid- and late twenty-first century depends substantially on the emission scenario. According to the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, solar radiation would gradually recover close to the level that prevailed in the late twentieth century. This results from the peaking of aerosol loading before midcentury while the water vapor content continuously increases somewhat. Conversely, under RCP8.5, incident radiation would still decline, although more slowly than during the early century. This coincides with a substantial increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a modest decrease in aerosol forcing. In cloud forcing, multimodel-mean changes are minor, but divergence among the model simulations is substantial. Moreover, cloud forcing proved to be the factor that correlates most strongly with intermodel differences in the solar radiation response. Multimodel-mean changes in solar radiation are small and would not crucially affect the conditions of solar energy production. Nevertheless, some individual models simulate far more substantial reductions of up to ~10%.

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“…A análise espacial surge como uma das várias formas de se avaliar e compreender os fenômenos das mais diversas áreas de conhecimento e sua correlação a alguns eventos, principalmente os climáticos (Santana et al, 2015). Modelos espaciais utilizando a geoestatística têm sido aplicados para a estimativa espaço-temporal de variáveis, na modelagem de fenômenos e simulações de cenários climáticos (Gondim et al, 2008;Delgado et al, 2014).…”

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Métodos de interpolação espacial do regime pluviométrico no espaço urbano de Catalão, Goiás (Methods of spatial interpolation of the pluviometric regime in the urban space of Catalão, Goiás)

Silva

Rodrigues

Delgado

et al. 2018

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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O presente estudo visa à realização de um estudo de métodos de interpolação espacial que melhor se ajustem a área urbana de Catalão, Goiás. Foi avaliado o desempenho espacial da chuva coletada por uma rede de pluviômetros modelo "Ville de Paris" através de três modelos: Exponencial, Gaussiano e Esférico no período de 2015 a 2016. Utilizaram-se dados diários de chuva dos pluviômetros e estações automática e convencional do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Para validação foram adotados os seguintes parâmetros: regressão linear e correlação linear (Pearson) (r 2 e r), ajustamento de curvas, seguido do Erro Padrão de Estimativa (EPE), índice de concordância (d) e Viés Médio (VM). O ano de 2015 foi o mais inconsistente pontualmente, onde, o r 2 variou de 93% comparado com a convencional a 64% com a automática. Os erros foram maiores neste ano com VM para convencional de-146 mm e EPE de 21,13 mm, já a automática os erros foram menores com VM de 13,41 mm e EPE de 49,72 mm. Para o ano de 2016 o r 2 foi superior a 95% para ambas estações. O índice d foi igual a 1 para ambas estações. O melhor GDE encontrado foi para o ano de 2016, em que se ajustou um modelo Exponencial. Os piores resultados foram encontrados para o ano de 2015, onde ambos modelos apresentaram Efeito Pepira Puro, o que inviabiliza a utilização de KO. As regiões de maiores e menores adensamentos geográficos influenciaram diretamente nos volumes precipitados em Catalão, Goiás. Palavras Chave: Análise espacial, geoestatística, sinótica. Methods of spatial interpolation of the pluviometric regime in the urban space of Catalão, Goiás A B S T R A C T The present study aims to perform a study of spatial interpolation methods that best fit the urban area of Catalão, Goiás. The spatial performance of the rain collected by a network of "Ville de Paris" rain gauges was evaluated through three models: Exponential, Gaussian and Spherical data from 2015 to 2016. Rainfall data were used for rain gauges and automatic and conventional stations of the National Meteorological Institute. For validation, the following parameters were adopted: linear regression and linear (Pearson) correlation (r 2 and r), curve fitting, followed by Standard Error of Estimation (SEE), concordance index (d) and Medium Bias. The year 2015 was the most inconsistent on time, where r 2 ranged from 93% compared to conventional to 64% with automatic. The errors were larger in this year with conventional MB of-146 mm and EPE of 21.13 mm, while the automatic errors were smaller with MB of 13.41 mm and SEE of 49.72 mm. For the year 2016 r 2 was higher than 95% for both seasons. The index d was equal to 1 for both seasons. The best DSP found was for the year 2016, in which an Exponential model was fitted. The worst results were found for the year 2015, where both models presented Pure Pepira Effect, which made it impossible to use OK. The regions with larger and smaller geographic densities influenced directly the volumes precipitated in Catalão, Goiás.

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Cenários climáticos da radiação solar global baseados no modelo regional HadRM3 para o Estado do Acre

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Changes in past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Changes in past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Future Changes in Incident Surface Solar Radiation and Contributing Factors in India in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations

Métodos de interpolação espacial do regime pluviométrico no espaço urbano de Catalão, Goiás (Methods of spatial interpolation of the pluviometric regime in the urban space of Catalão, Goiás)

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