Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season

Brogli, Roman; Sørland, Silje Lund; Kröner, Nico; Schär, Christoph

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438

Cited by 75 publications

(53 citation statements)

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“…These competing effects of increased latent heating versus increased static stability are crucial for changes in updrafts speeds and thus precipitation rates [74,87]. The changes in stratification also drive large-scale geographical patterns in surface warming and significant changes in precipitation frequency and amount [91]. This effect is particularly important in tropical regions and in extratropical summer conditions, and is a more robust response than the large-scale circulation changes that, for e.g., dominate precipitation changes during the European winter [91].…”

Section: Towards Understanding Mechanisms Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The changes in stratification also drive large-scale geographical patterns in surface warming and significant changes in precipitation frequency and amount [91]. This effect is particularly important in tropical regions and in extratropical summer conditions, and is a more robust response than the large-scale circulation changes that, for e.g., dominate precipitation changes during the European winter [91]. Changes to large-scale atmospheric dynamics are clearly important and not well-researched.…”

Section: Towards Understanding Mechanisms Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Fowler

Ali

Allan

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

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Section: Towards Understanding Mechanisms Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Towards Understanding Mechanisms Of Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Fowler

Ali

Allan

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…6). (Barcikowska et al, 2020;Brogli et al, 2019;Giorgi & Lionello, 2008), али по стопама 20 % вишим од глобалног просјека (Lionello & Scarascia, 2018). Такође, повећаће се учесталост и интензитет топлих таласа (Diff enbaugh et al, 2007).…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

“…During the 21st century, global warming will continue, as will rising temperatures in the Mediterranean region (Barcikowska et al, 2020;Brogli et al, 2019;Giorgi & Lionello, 2008), but at rates 20 % higher than the global average (Lionello & Scarascia, 2018). Also, the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase (Diff enbaugh et al, 2007).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Промјене Температуре Ваздуха У Источној Херцеговини У Периоду 1961‒2016. Године

Гњато¹,

Попов²,

Трбић³

et al. 2021

HER

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У раду се анализирају промјене температуре ваздуха у Источној Херцеговини у периоду 1961‒2016. године. На основу података о мјесечним средњим, средњим максималним и средњим минималним температурама ваздуха са метеоролошких и падавинских станица у Источној Херцеговини анализирани су трендови, распоред према перцентилима и промјене у односу на просјечне вриједности у референтном периоду 1961−1990. годи- не. Резултати истраживања показују да је на простору Источне Херцеговине присутна тенденција загријавања. Значајне позитивне трендове на годишњем нивоу испољавају како средње (0.1−0.3°C по деценији), тако и средње максималне (0.3−0.4°C по деценији) и средње минималне (0.1−0.4°C по деценији) температуре ваздуха. Повећање температура ваздуха присутно је током цијеле године, али је најизраженије у сезони љето (средња и средња минимална температура порасла је за 0.3−0.6°C по деценији, а средња максимална за 0.5−0.6°C), а нарочито током два најтоплија мјесеца, јула и августа.

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“…4 2014). In the mid-latitudes, particularly in the winter season, RCMs strongly depend on the large-scale mean flow of the GCMs, which may negatively influence the RCM results (Hall, 2014;Kjellström et al, 2016;Brogli et al, 2019;Fernandez et al, 2019), although RCMs tend to correct some of the biases seen in their driving GCMs (e.g. Guo and Wang, 2016;Sørland et al, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

Can high-resolution GCMs reach the level of information provided by 12–50 km CORDEX RCMs in terms of daily precipitation distribution?

Demory¹,

Berthou

Sørland³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In this study, we perform an evaluation of PRIMAVERA high-resolution (25-50 km) Global Climate Models (GCMs) relative to CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe (12-50 km resolutions). It is the first time such assessment is performed for regional climate information using ensembles of GCMs and RCMs at similar horizontal resolutions. We perform this exercise for the distribution of daily precipitation contributions to rainfall bins over Europe 25 under current climate conditions. Both ensembles are evaluated against high quality national gridded observations in terms of resolution and station density. We show that PRIMAVERA GCMs simulate very similar distribution to CORDEX RCMs that CMIP5 cannot because of their coarse resolutions. PRIMAVERA and CORDEX ensembles generally show similar strengths and weaknesses. They are of good quality in summer and autumn in most European regions, but tend to overestimate precipitation in winter and spring. PRIMAVERA show improvements in the latter bias by reducing mid-rain 30 rate biases in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover, CORDEX simulate less light rainfall than PRIMAVERA in most regions and seasons, which improves this common GCM bias. Finally, PRIMAVERA simulate less heavy precipitation than CORDEX in most regions and seasons, especially in summer. PRIMAVERA appear to be closer to observations. However, when we apply an averaged precipitation undercatch error of 20%, CORDEX become closer to these synthetic datasets.Considering 50 km resolution GCM or RCM datasets over Europe results in large benefits compared to CMIP5 models for 35 impact studies at the regional scale. The effect of increasing resolution from 50 km to 12 km in CORDEX simulations is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions (due to the importance of orography) and coastal regions (mostly depending on the resolution of the land-sea contrast). Now that GCMs are able to reach the level of information provided by CORDEX RCMs run at similar resolutions, there is an opportunity to better coordinate GCM and RCM simulations for future model intercomparison projects. 1 IntroductionClimate models are essential tools to provide information on the evolution of climate quantities, their variability and interactions with various components of the Earth System. There have been two main streams of development in the climate modelling community: Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). GCMs are complex models that account for interactions at the global scale between various components of the Earth System (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, sea 45 ice, vegetation). They are designed to balance model resolution, physics complexity and computational requirements, and are therefore commonly run at coarse spatial resolution. RCMs are complex models that dynamically downscale GCM results to obtain fine climate information at the regional scale. The main advantages of the dynamical downscaling approach are that: 1) RCMs are computationally cheaper and use a higher horizo...

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Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season

Cited by 75 publications

References 53 publications

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Промјене Температуре Ваздуха У Источној Херцеговини У Периоду 1961‒2016. Године

Can high-resolution GCMs reach the level of information provided by 12–50 km CORDEX RCMs in terms of daily precipitation distribution?

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