Causes and Peculiarities of Recent Floods on the Dniester River

Shulyarenko, A.; Yatsiuk, M. V.; Shulyarenko, L.

doi:10.1007/978-94-011-4140-6_10

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The most threatening flood types in Ukraine are riverine floods [92]. However, increasingly, flash and urban floods occur as well, especially regionally, due to climate change, highintensity land use, and urbanization [94,95]. The brief characteristic of disastrous floods in the most flood-prone country's regions is shown in Table 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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What could we have learnt from the previous flood data to predict losses caused by the 1980, 1986, and 1998 catastrophic floods in Ukrainian Transcarpathian?

Stefanyshyn¹

2022

esanr

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This paper explores some aspects relating to retrospective predicting the confirmed monetary losses caused by the disastrous floods of 1980, 1986, and 1998 in the Tisza River basin within the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine. The research was based on two time series – the losses because of past floods and the maxima water discharges gauged at the hydrological station near the village of Vylok, Vynohradiv district. The main aim of the research was to make out whether it had been the possibility to predict the losses due to those floods in advance.In solving the task, there was revealed and modelled the dependence of the risk of losses due to the floods in Transcarpathia on the maximum water discharges of the Tisza River gauged at the “Vylok” hydrological station. Predicting was based on the hypothesis of the stationary random process for maximum water discharges, which allowed using an empirical distribution function of a random variable regarding flood water discharges assessing the risk of flood losses.Retrospective predicting of the losses caused by the floods of 1980, 1986, and 1998 was carried out by means of a combined situational-inductive predictive modelling method (CSIPMM), being an original author’s development. The method relates to predicting the behaviour of complex dynamic systems based on monitoring findings presented as time series data reflecting evolutions of a resulting (dependent) variable and an explaining (independent) variable (predictor). The method uses extrapolation-regression type models. According to this method, the prediction task is performed in two stages. The first stage realises the retrospective situational modelling task aiming to obtain a set of simple regressions (situational models) built on data of sample time series. The situational models are accepted to be adequate or relevant ones only within certain periods of time determined as situations. In the second stage, based on the generalization (on an ensemble) of the obtained retrospective situational models, inductive “levels” models are built, which reflect the behaviour of a controlled parameter of the system or process (a resulting variable) at several fixed values of a predictor in time. The inductive models are used in extrapolative predicting situational models belonging to future periods (situations).In total, three predictions were made: (1) taking into account the annual maximum flood discharges from 1954 to 1979 (before the flood of 1980); (2) the same from 1954 to 1985 (before the flood of 1986); (3) the same from 1954 to 1997 (before the flood of 1998). The study found that there had been a possibility to predict the confirmed monetary losses inflicted by the flood of 1986 and 1998 (relative predicting errors of 7.2-8.7% and 6.0-12.8% depending on the prediction options).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Especially often disastrous floods occur in the western regions of the country, on the Carpathian rivers [91][92][93][94][95][96][97]. Catastrophic floods in the Ukrainian Carpathians are an inherent element of the hydrological regime of local rivers [97].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What could we have learnt from the previous flood data to predict losses caused by the 1980, 1986, and 1998 catastrophic floods in Ukrainian Transcarpathian?

Stefanyshyn¹

2022

esanr

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“…One of the most known contiguous riparian zone among such areas on Ukrainian territory is the Upper Dniester Basin [6][7][8], and, in particularly, the Dniester floodplain near the town of Halych.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Situational predictive modelling of the flood hazard in the Dniester river valley near the town of Halych

Stefanyshyn¹,

Korbutiak²,

Stefanyshyna-Gavryliuk³

2019

Environmental Safety and Natural Resources

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There has been presented a method of situational predictive modelling of the flood hazard in the Dniester River valley near the town of Halych based of hydrological observations data obtained at the Halych water level gauge. Some features in the behaviour of the equation of relationship between levels and water discharges for the Halych water level gauge were revealed, in particularly, regularities fostering reliable forecasting the flood hazard by means of statistical data and ambiguities interfering similar predicting. The possibility of effective situational predicting of the flood hazard according to current data of hydrological observations to minimize probable harm and losses was shown.

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Causes and Peculiarities of Recent Floods on the Dniester River

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

What could we have learnt from the previous flood data to predict losses caused by the 1980, 1986, and 1998 catastrophic floods in Ukrainian Transcarpathian?

What could we have learnt from the previous flood data to predict losses caused by the 1980, 1986, and 1998 catastrophic floods in Ukrainian Transcarpathian?

Situational predictive modelling of the flood hazard in the Dniester river valley near the town of Halych

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