Causation and Disease: A Chronological Journey

Evans, Alfred S.

doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112617

Cited by 150 publications

(71 citation statements)

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“…It is unclear whether the occurrence of NE leads to wet litter and coccidiosis or whether they can be considered true risk factors for the disease. Farmer-reported median ages of occurrence of 24 and 25 days for wet litter and coccidiosis, respectively, compared with 26 days for NE, suggests the latter as it is consistent with one of the criteria of causality that cause should precede the outcome (Evans, 1978). Furthermore, in a systematic review of case reports and case series of naturally occurring NE, diarrhoea was not a consistently reported feature of the disease (Hermans & Morgan, unpublished observations).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Prevalence and associated risk factors of necrotic enteritis on broiler farms in the United Kingdom; a cross-sectional survey

Hermans

Morgan

2007

Avian Pathology

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In order to determine the prevalence and risk factors for necrotic enteritis in broilers, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among 857 farms, rearing broilers for nine UK poultry companies. The main data collection tool was a postal questionnaire directed at farm managers. Additional information on disease occurrence on the farm was collected from veterinary postmortem reports. The response rate to the questionnaire was 75%, ranging from 54% to 90% within companies. During 2001, 32.8% of the respondents indicated that they had observed a case of necrotic enteritis (95% confidence interval, 29.1 to 36.8) in at least one flock. The disease was most often reported during the months October to February. The point prevalence (necrotic enteritis occurrence in the most recently reared flock) reported by farm managers was 12.3% (95% confidence interval, 9.8 to 15.2). Multilevel logistic regression was performed with the poultry company as the random effect, using the occurrence of necrotic enteritis in the farm's most recently reared flock as the dependent variable. Strong associations were found between the outcome variable and the occurrence of wet litter (odds ratio, 2.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.27 to 4.52; P0/0.007) and coccidiosis (odds ratio, 4.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.74 to 12.55; P0/0.002). In addition, the use of ammonia as a disinfectant for coccidial oocysts appeared to be an independent risk factor (odds ratio, 3.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.53 to 7.71; P0/0.003). Finally, the positive association between the use of plasterboard walls in poultry houses and the occurrence of necrotic enteritis might point to an important role of cleaning and disinfection in the epidemiology of this disease (odds ratio, 3.72; 1.38 to 10.00; P 0/0.009).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Prevalence and associated risk factors of necrotic enteritis on broiler farms in the United Kingdom; a cross-sectional survey

Hermans

Morgan

2007

Avian Pathology

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“…Yerushalmy and Palmer (67) and Murray and Lopez (64) discussed the multiple levels of causality in risk assessment; Yerushalmy and Palmer (67) referred to the factors at different causality levels as agents and vectors of disease, and Murray and Lopez (64) divided the levels of causality into distal, proximal, and pathophysiologic. Further, using historical analysis of research on disease causation, Evans (68,69) found that best available measurement and monitoring technology plays an important role in studying and identifying causal agents at different causality levels. Although much of this discussion has focused on causation, the results can be extended to the quantitative relationship between exposure and health outcome.…”

Section: Health Impact (Hazard) Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The health impacts of exposure to indoor air pollution from solid fuels in developing countries: knowledge, gaps, and data needs.

Ezzati

Kammen

2002

Environ Health Perspect

383

268

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Globally, almost 3 billion people rely on biomass (wood, charcoal, crop residues, and dung) and coal as their primary source of domestic energy. Exposure to indoor air pollution (IAP) from the combustion of solid fuels is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. In this paper, we review the current knowledge on the relationship between IAP exposure and disease and on interventions for reducing exposure and disease. We take an environmental health perspective and consider the details of both exposure and health effects that are needed for successful intervention strategies. We also identify knowledge gaps and detailed research questions that are essential in successful design and dissemination of preventive measures and policies. In addition to specific research recommendations, we conclude that given the interaction of housing, household energy, and day-to-day household activities in determining exposure to indoor smoke, research and development of effective interventions can benefit tremendously from integration of methods and analysis tools from a range of disciplines in the physical, social, and health sciences.

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“…Although epidemiology, unlike psychology, has already recognized the informational value of temporal distributions (Evans, 1993), it lists regular temporal distributions as only one of several requirements that must be fulfilled to license causal conjecture. Most important, epidemiological principles of causation state that, among other things, a disease has to have a higher prevalence and incidence in individuals exposed to the cause than in those not so exposed.…”

Section: The Role Of Temporal Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of temporal distributions on causal induction from tabular data

Greville

Buehner

2007

Memory & Cognition

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Two experiments investigated the joint influence of statistical and temporal information on causal inference from tabular data. Participants were presented with unambiguous data sets containing information about relative effect frequencies in cause-present and cause-absent situations. In addition to contingency information, the stimuli also revealed information about the temporal distribution of effects. The participants took this information into account when making causal judgments, so that the mere advancing or postponing of the effect in time was attached with causal significance, even when the cause did not increase the overall probability of the effect. These results cannot be reconciled with standard contingency accounts of causal induction.Peer reviewe

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Causation and Disease: A Chronological Journey

Cited by 150 publications

References 0 publications

Prevalence and associated risk factors of necrotic enteritis on broiler farms in the United Kingdom; a cross-sectional survey

Prevalence and associated risk factors of necrotic enteritis on broiler farms in the United Kingdom; a cross-sectional survey

The health impacts of exposure to indoor air pollution from solid fuels in developing countries: knowledge, gaps, and data needs.

The influence of temporal distributions on causal induction from tabular data

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