Causality Relationship Between Agricultural Education and Poverty in Egypt

El-Rasoul, Ahmed Abou El-Yazid; Shehab, Sameh; Hafez, Eman M. Abdel

doi:10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.210863

Cited by 1 publication

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“…The main contribution of this paper is that the published works regarding price volatility of agricultural prices in Egypt are so little. El-Rasoul and Tolba (2018), analyzed the price volatility in the Egyptian food markets to find the major macroeconomic factors that influence it during the period 1995-2015 through the exponential function model. The results revealed that there is some link between the seasonality of retail prices and the wholesale prices of the commodities studied.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it is also relevant for the private sector to study the differences in price volatility among products for production and marketing decision (Heifner and Kinoshita, 1994;Jordaan et al, 2007). On the other hand, several study results indicated that agricultural price variability has a major impact on food security (El-Rasoul and Tolba, 2018), so it is extremely necessary to provide decision-makers with a database of future agricultural price to deal with any food crisis. Price volatility of some export crops…”

Section: Price Volatility Of Some Export Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting agricultural price volatility of some export crops in Egypt using ARIMA/GARCH model

Agbo

2023

REPS

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PurposeThis study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.FindingsThe results show that ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2.1,2), ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,0) and ARIMA (1,1,1) are the most appropriate fitted models to evaluate the volatility of price of green beans, tomatoes, onions, oranges, grapes and strawberries, respectively. The results also revealed the presence of ARCH effect only in the case of Potatoes, hence it is suggested that the GARCH approach be used instead. The GARCH (1,1) is found to be a better model in forecasting price of potatoes.Originality/valueThe study of food price volatility in developing countries is essential, since a significant share of household budgets is spent on food in these economies, so forecasting agricultural prices is a substantial requirement for drawing up many economic plans in the fields of agricultural production, consumption, marketing and trade.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%