Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict

Saâdaoui, Foued; Jabeur, Sami Ben; Goodell, John W.

doi:10.1016/j.frl.2022.103103

Cited by 104 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Other stand literature focuses on the connectedness spillover and the relationship during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which seems higher and more significant during the war as an event window compared to the pre-war across various assets such as food prices (Saâdaoui et al 2022). Umar et al (2022a) examine the Russian evasion of Ukranian on global assets, including oil, gas, and gold.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do all renewable energy stocks react to the war in Ukraine? Russo-Ukrainian conflict perspective

Mohammed

Usman

Ahmad

et al. 2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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This study investigates how renewable energy markets reacted to the war in Ukraine in 2022 using event study and network connectedness analyses and compares this effect to traditional energy sources. Combining event study with connectedness analysis is of great interest in identifying abnormal returns from the Russia-Ukraine conflict event. The risk-return profiles make clean energy more appealing to investors, and increased investment in clean energy subsectors leads to improved climate change mitigation. Sampled data are wrangled daily from 03 August 2021 to 30 March 2022. The results confirm that renewable energy markets have positive and significant cumulative abnormalities while traditional energy markets are heavily affected during the post-war. Moreover, we find higher pairwise return connectedness after the announcement event than during and before the war in Ukraine. The geothermal and full cell markets are the more robust net information transmitter to other clean energy subsectors. Finally, renewable energy appeared more pertinent during and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, given its properties to serve diversifications and hedging tools.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do all renewable energy stocks react to the war in Ukraine? Russo-Ukrainian conflict perspective

Mohammed

Usman

Ahmad

et al. 2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…However, national sovereign security and military security are always at the core of geopolitical risk [ 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 ]. In terms of the impact effect of geopolitical risk, the geopolitical risk will cause fluctuations in international finance, global energy and global food supply on the macro level [ 21 , 22 ], and will cause enterprises, investors and consumers to adjust their own business behavior, investment strategies and consumption structure on the micro level [ 23 , 24 , 25 ]. In terms of assessment tools, geopolitical risk assessment has gradually shifted from qualitative to quantitative and visual analysis [ 26 , 27 , 28 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geopolitical Risk Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Types Classification

Shan

Ruan

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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As a great practice of building a community of shared future for mankind, the Belt and Road Initiative is facing geopolitical risk brought by great power games, regional conflicts and terrorism. It is an important mission of geopolitical research to scientifically deal with the geopolitical risk along the Belt and Road. This study systematically constructs the geopolitical risk assessment index system and analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution, obstacle factors and risk types of geopolitical risk of countries along the Belt and Road by using the entropy weight TOPSIS model, obstacle degree model and minimum variance method. The research results showed that: (1) From 2005 to 2020, the polarization of geopolitical risk in countries along the Belt and Road was very significant, and the overall trend of geopolitical risk tended to deteriorate. (2) The Middle East and Eastern Europe were the most important geopolitical risk zones along the Belt and Road, and Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia and Ukraine were the main high geopolitical risk centers, with significant risk spillover effects from these centers. (3) Terrorism and close relations with the United States were the most important obstacle factors for geopolitical risk in countries along the Belt and Road, and military intervention politics, trade dependence degree and foreign debt burden were important obstacle factors for geopolitical risk in countries along the Belt and Road. (4) Geopolitical risk along the Belt and Road can be divided into sovereign risk dominant type, sovereign and military risk dominant type, sovereign and major power intervention risk dominant type, and sovereign and military and major power intervention risk jointly dominated type, among which sovereign and military and major power intervention risk jointly dominated type was the most important geopolitical risk type. In order to scientifically deal with geopolitical risk in countries along the Belt and Road, it is necessary to strengthen geopolitical risk awareness, pay attention to the dominant geopolitical risk factors, strengthen the control of regional geopolitical risk spillover and formulate reasonable risk prevention and control scheme based on geopolitical risk types.

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“…A significant strand of the literature has focused on investigating whether war or terrorist acts limit economic growth (Razek and McQuinn 2021;Nguyen et al 2022) and result in intense volatility in financial markets (Kollias et al 2013;Antonakakis et al 2017;Chiang 2022;Economou and Kyriazis 2022). When it comes to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, emphasis should be given to the very large inflationary pressures 2 , the food and energy deficiency (Saâdaoui et al 2022;Del Lo et al 2022) and the huge fluctuations in international markets (Umar et al 2022b) that the conflict has brought to the surface. This has happened as Russia and Ukraine are among the largest suppliers of agricultural commodities such as corn and wheat, fertilizers (Ben Hassen and Bilali 2022) and energy (oil and natural gas) (Umar et al 2022a) in a global context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Portfolios of National Currencies, Commodities and Fuel, Agricultural Commodities and Cryptocurrencies during the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Kyriazis

2022

IJFS

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This study sets out to explore the impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on worldwide financial markets by considering a large array of national currencies, precious metals and fuel, agricultural commodities and cryptocurrencies. Estimations span the period since the Russian invasion until the takeover of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Optimal portfolios are constructed for separate categories of financial assets for different levels of risk-aversion by investors. The Chinese yuan, gold, corn, soybeans, sugar and Bitcoin prove to be safe haven investments while the Japanese yen, natural gas, wheat and the combination of Bitcoin and Ethereum offer profit opportunities for risk-seekers. Notably, the agricultural commodities’ portfolio is the best performing while the cryptocurrency portfolio generates the worst risk-return trade-off. National currencies could act as safe havens in the place of gold when all types of assets can be combined. Natural gas is revealed to be the most reliable profit generator. Overall, high risk appetite does not result in large improvement in portfolios’ returns. This study sheds light on investors’ optimal decision-making during elevated geopolitical uncertainties and provides a compass for improving welfare.

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Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict

Cited by 104 publications

References 24 publications

Do all renewable energy stocks react to the war in Ukraine? Russo-Ukrainian conflict perspective

Do all renewable energy stocks react to the war in Ukraine? Russo-Ukrainian conflict perspective

Geopolitical Risk Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Countries along the Belt and Road and Its Types Classification

Optimal Portfolios of National Currencies, Commodities and Fuel, Agricultural Commodities and Cryptocurrencies during the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

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