Causality Analysis for Aviation Weather Hazards

Krozel, Jimmy; McNichols, William; Prete, Joseph; Lindholm, Tenny

doi:10.2514/6.2008-8914

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In terms of non-convective meteorological data, Ref. 16 provides a detailed causality analysis of the impact of these data sources on air traffic management operations. Among the more important non-convective weather products that are predictable over the twenty minute to six hour planning horizon are winds-aloft, which are available from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model 17; and ceiling and visibility forecasts, which are available from the marine stratus forecast system.…”

Section: System Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

Grabbe

Sridhar

Mukherjee

2009

AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference

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A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the num ber of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

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Section: System Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

Grabbe

Sridhar

Mukherjee

2009

AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference

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“…Statistics show [10] that about 50% of the accidents in civil aviation are connected to adverse atmospheric conditions. A large, not easily quantified, percentage of these accidents involved heavy rain [11]. The reason is that heavy rain impacts on the forward part of the fuselage and on the wings and, therefore, it affects the torque around the aircraft centre of gravity [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rotating Arm-Based Experimental Study on Droplet Behavior in the Shoulder Region of an Aircraft Aerodynamic Surface

Sor

García-Magariño

Velázquez

2017

International Journal of Aerospace Engineering

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An experimental study has been performed on water droplet deformation in the shoulder region of an airfoil. The experiments have been carried out in a rotating arm facility 2.2 m long and able to rotate up to 400 rpm (90 m/s). A blunt airfoil model (chord length equal to 0.468 m) was placed at the end of the arm. A droplet generator was used to generate a stream of water droplets with an initial diameter of 1000 μm. An imaging system was set up to record the trajectories and deformations of the droplets in three different regions close to the airfoil shoulder. The base flow field was characterized using a particle image velocimetry system. The experiments show that droplet deformation results in the shoulder region of the airfoil are different from those pertaining to the leading edge region. In particular, droplets in the shoulder region tend to rotate to the direction of the incoming airfoil which generates an interference effect between the droplets that make up the stream. These differences have been quantified applying an existing theoretical model specifically developed for the leading edge region to the results obtained in the present study.

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“…10 In terms of the impact of low fog and ceilings at Anchorage, these conditions can impact the ability of a pilot to take off and land without the assistance of instrument landing systems. 11 Additionally, as the visibility decreases, more reliable and precise navigation aids and aircraft equipage become necessary, as well as increased pilot training. Similarly, these conditions can also impact the ability of a controller to provide clearances, since maneuvers based on surface features or references to surrounding air traffic become more challenging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anchorage Arrival Scheduling Under Off-nominal Weather Conditions

Grabbe

Chan

Mukherjee

2012

AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference

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Weather can cause flight diversions, passenger delays, additional fuel consumption and schedule disruptions at any high volume airport. The impacts are particularly acute at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska due to its importance as a major international portal. To minimize the impacts due to weather, a multi-stage scheduling process is employed that is iteratively executed, as updated aircraft demand and/or airport capacity data become available. The strategic scheduling algorithm assigns speed adjustments for flights that originate outside of Anchorage Center to achieve the proper demand and capacity balance. Similarly, an internal departure-scheduling algorithm assigns ground holds for pre-departure flights that originate from within Anchorage Center. Tactical flight controls in the form of airborne holding are employed to reactively account for system uncertainties. Real-world scenarios that were derived from the January 16, 2012 Anchorage visibility observations and the January 12, 2012 Anchorage arrival schedule were used to test the initial implementation of the scheduling algorithm in fast-time simulation experiments. Although over 90% of the flights in the scenarios arrived at Anchorage without requiring any delay, pre-departure scheduling was the dominant form of control for Anchorage arrivals. Additionally, tactical scheduling was used extensively in conjunction with the pre-departure scheduling to reactively compensate for uncertainties in the arrival demand. For long-haul flights, the strategic scheduling algorithm performed best when the scheduling horizon was greater than 1,000 nmi. With these long scheduling horizons, it was possible to absorb between ten and 12 minutes of delay through speed control alone. Unfortunately, the use of tactical scheduling, which resulted in airborne holding, was found to increase as the strategic scheduling horizon increased because of the additional uncertainty in the arrival times of the aircraft. Findings from these initial experiments indicate that it is possible to schedule arrivals into Anchorage with minimal delays under low-visibility conditions with less disruption to high-cost, international flights.

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Causality Analysis for Aviation Weather Hazards

Cited by 17 publications

References 4 publications

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

Rotating Arm-Based Experimental Study on Droplet Behavior in the Shoulder Region of an Aircraft Aerodynamic Surface

Anchorage Arrival Scheduling Under Off-nominal Weather Conditions

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