Causal Impact Price Transmission of the Rice Markets in Thailand

Chulaphan, Wanvilai; Jatuporn, Chalermpon; Chen, Shwu-En; Jierwiriyapant, Pattana

doi:10.2316/p.2012.769-051

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Using monthly rice export data from August 1997 to November 2006 for Thailand and Vietnam, Ghoshray (2008) also confirmed a long-run relationship between rice export prices of the sampled countries. Using high and low-quality monthly rice export prices from January 1998 to April 2012 in Thailand, Vietnam, the U.S., and Pakistan, and applying the Vector Error Correction model estimation procedure Chulaphan et al (2013) confirmed that in both high and low-quality rice markets, there exists a long-run equilibrium price relationship.…”

Section: Review Of Literature and Motivation Of The Current Studymentioning

confidence: 90%

Interrelationships Among the Rice Export Prices of Major Exporting Countries: In Search of the Leader and Followers

Mottaleb,

Durand-Morat

2024

J. Agric. Appl. Econ.

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By examining the econometric interrelationships of rice export prices of India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, this study examines the most influential rice-exporting countries in the international rice export market. The sampled countries are the source of more than 80% of the global rice exports. In the process, this study relies on online data portals of the United Nations and country-level sources for aromatic and non-aromatic rice export price information from India, Pakistan, and Thailand. This study employed the Prais-Winsten and Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation processes with the error correction procedure. Combining the findings from both models, this study concludes that in terms of interactions, the non-aromatic long-grain rice price of the U.S., and the aromatic rice price of Pakistan are the most correlated prices in the international rice market. Considering the number of countries influenced by the price of a given country, our results indicate that Vietnam is the price leader in the non-aromatic long-grain market, followed by Argentina, Brazil, and India. India, the largest exporter, is the fourth top price leader. In the case of aromatic rice, Thailand is the absolute leader. Many countries in Asia and Africa rely on rice imports to meet domestic demand, where the food security situation is already precarious. Based on the findings, this study suggests closely monitoring rice production and export trends of Vietnam, Argentina, Brazil, India and Thailand to provide early warning when necessary to better manage supply shocks in the international rice market.

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Section: Review Of Literature and Motivation Of The Current Studymentioning

confidence: 90%

Interrelationships Among the Rice Export Prices of Major Exporting Countries: In Search of the Leader and Followers

Mottaleb,

Durand-Morat

2024

J. Agric. Appl. Econ.

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“…With this policy, farmers can keep their mortgaged paddy to avoid selling when market price is low. The value of their pledged rice is based on the loan price, which is set at about 95% of the government's pledged price, and the corresponding quantity (Chulaphan, Chen, Jatuporn, & Jierwiriyapant, 2012). If farmers do not redeem their mortgaged paddy after 4-5 months, the government will take over their pledged paddy.…”

Section: Rice Trade Policy and The Role Of Stesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After some interruptions, the pledging program was introduced again in 2000-2001 under Thaksin Sinawatra government. In between 2004 and 2005, the pledged price was set about 20-30% above the market price (farm price) and went up from 10,000 to 14,000 THB per tonne in 2008 (Chulaphan et al, 2012;Poapongsakorn, 2010). In 2011, when Yingluck Sinawatra took office, the support price was set at a record-breaking level, 15,000 THB for each tonne of white rice, equivalent to about $500/MT (The Economist, 2013).…”

Section: Rice Trade Policy and The Role Of Stesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three essays on rice markets and policies in southeast Asia with a focus on rice consumption patterns in Vietnam

Hoang

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The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze rice markets and policies in Southeast Asia with a focus on rice demand in Vietnam. The first essay explores the impacts of removing rice tariffs in the region's three largest importing countries, i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, using a partial equilibrium approach. Results from the study indicate that the removal of AFTA tariffs has the largest impacts on Indonesia and the Philippines' net trade and modestly affects domestic prices as well as world prices. Relative to the baseline, the removal of AFTA tariffs leads to an 8 percent increase in the world price and an increase by 8 percent, 13 percent and 48 percent in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines' imports, respectively. If all tariffs were eliminated, imports would increase significantly in Indonesia and the Philippines, by about 137 percent and 130 percent relative to the baseline. The world price is projected to increase by about 33 percent under this full liberalization scenario, leading to a modest rise in exports from Thailand and Vietnam but a significant decline in imports by African countries, by about 1 million tons. Results from this study suggest that the likely sizeable impacts of full trade liberalization would prevent governments of the importing countries from removing tariffs completely but some level of tariff removal would be viable. The second essay examines dietary changes in the consumption of rice in Vietnam using recent household survey data. Two demand systems, AIDS and QUAIDS, are employed for analysis. Robust test results suggest that QUAIDS outperforms AIDS in fitting data although both models yield similar outcomes. In addition, rice consumption patterns differ greatly by income class as well as between rural and urban areas. At the national level, the expenditure elasticity of rice is estimated to be positive but very small in magnitude, 0.05. Interestingly, rice appears to be a normal good for rural consumers but an inferior good for urban consumers with expenditure elasticities of 0.14 and -0.18, respectively. Rice is also found to be an inferior good for consumers at higher income quintiles in both rural and urban areas. Findings of this study imply that effective food, nutrition and poverty policies need to take into consideration the heterogeneity in demand responses with regard to price and income shocks across different demographic groups. The third essay extends the results of the second essay by using the estimated QUAIDS model to project at-home food demand in Vietnam through the years 2020 and 2030 taking into account the effects of food expenditure, food prices and urbanization. Results indicate that budget shares of rice decline significantly while those for meat and fish, drinks and miscellaneous food group including out-of-home food increase at higher levels of food expenditures. On a per capita basis, rice demand shows a fall in 2020 from the 2010 level and continues to decline in 2030. Demand for pork on a per capita basis continues to increase at higher levels of food expenditures but its growth rate is slower than that of meat and fish, suggesting consumers' high preference for non-pork meats and seafood as their incomes rise. Interestingly, the effect of urbanization on the national average consumption is found to be remarkable for rice while modest for other food groups. Results of this study highlight the importance of considering the effects of income distribution and urbanization on food demand projections.

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