Catchment flood management plans and the modelling and decision support framework

Evans, E. P.; Ramsbottom, David; Wicks, J. M.; Packman, J. C.; Penning‐Rowsell, Edmund C.

doi:10.1680/cien.150.5.43.38638

Cited by 10 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The choice of flood frequency estimation method for a practitioner is likely to be influenced by familiarity of approach and its potential features, and by the amount and type of relevant data for a particular site, as well as by overall numerical performance across the country. The FEH methods are now tried and tested to a degree (see, e.g., Institution of Civil Engineers, 2001;Evans et al, 2002). The approach is mature and flexible, with guidance in the statistical method on how to deal with, e.g., high groundwater components, and how to incorporate information from historic flood observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of statistical and catchment modelling approaches to river flood frequency estimation

Calver

Stewart

Goodsell

2009

J Flood Risk Management

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The paper compares results from two approaches to the quantification of river flood frequencies applicable nationally in Britain. One approach uses both the flood peak and event‐based methods of the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) of current water industry practice and the other approach is a recently developed set of continuous simulation techniques using parameter‐sparse modelling of catchment flood runoff response. The methods were applied to over a hundred sites in Britain, treated as if without flow data, although such observations existed and were used only for testing purposes. Errors of ≤20% in peak flows at ungauged sites are currently very good in this hydrologically challenging context; errors of up to around 35% may have to be contended with in flood management practice. The results from the FEH statistical method reinforce its established role in peak‐flow estimation. On the basis of the aspects that have been tested here, the emerging continuous simulation approaches show considerable potential to offer good performance for peaks and flow time series. The errors associated with the FEH unit hydrograph approach reflect the additional challenge it incorporates of ungauged rainfall estimation in addition to ungauged discharge.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of statistical and catchment modelling approaches to river flood frequency estimation

Calver

Stewart

Goodsell

2009

J Flood Risk Management

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“…This is a problem of reliability and risk analysis that has received widespread attention in the last decade (Dawson and Hall, 2006;Dawson et al, 2005;Gouldby et al, 2008;Hall et al, 2003b;Jonkman et al, 2008;Vorogushyn et al, 2010). Indeed, the methods that have been developed have rapidly found their way into flood risk analysis practice, for example in the UK Environment Agency's national flood risk assessment (NaFRA) and version 2 of the Environment Agency's modelling and decision support framework (MDSF) (Evans et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computing flood risk in areas protected by flood defences

Harvey

Manning

2014

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Manag

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Risk analysis of areas protected by flood defence systems involves probabilistic analysis of a large number of scenarios in which one or more of the defence sections that make up the system has failed. In systems with large numbers of defence sections, the computational expense of this calculation can be prohibitive. When the probability of failure of each defence section is not negligibly small, sampling approaches that are now in widespread use may not converge on a stable risk estimate in reasonable computational time. To overcome this worrying limitation, this paper reformulates the flood risk calculation in terms of the cumulative distribution function of the volume of floodwater entering a floodplain. An algorithm is presented whose computational expense scales linearly with the number of sections in the flood defence system. The approach is applied to flood risk analysis in areas protected by extensive systems of flood defences in the Thames estuary, revealing how flood risk varies depending on the characteristics of the flood defence system and floodplain topography. It opens up the possibility of more exhaustive risk-based appraisal and uncertainty analysis of flood risk management options than have hitherto been feasible.

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“…The method is demonstrated using a case study from Yorkshire, and the main practical and theoretical challenges associated with the method are discussed. significant theoretical and practical challenges underlie the estimation of both components of risk (Evans et al, 2002(Evans et al, , 2006Wheater, 2002Wheater, , 2006Hall et al, 2003;Gouldby et al, 2008;Falconer et al, 2009;Merz et al, 2010). The most relevant general challenges are reviewed briefly here as a background to the proposed framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk assessment for infrastructure networks

Emanuelsson

McIntyre

Hunt

et al. 2013

J Flood Risk Management

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A practical framework for flood risk screening was developed to assess the flood risk to water utility assets within the infrastructure network. The tool is a combination of probability and consequence assessments. The first takes into account how probable it is for a particular asset to flood and cause significant damage. The second estimates the level of consequences a flood will have, considering, for example, the level of loss of service, environmental pollution and cost. The consequence assessment is based on a dependency assessment that identifies knock‐on effects on other assets within the asset network and assesses the level of consequence they will have. The probability and consequence assessments are combined to produce a risk score that can be used to rank assets in a screening process that aims to assist companies in prioritising the investments required for taking action to reduce flood risk to their assets.

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Catchment flood management plans and the modelling and decision support framework

Cited by 10 publications

References 1 publication

Comparative analysis of statistical and catchment modelling approaches to river flood frequency estimation

Comparative analysis of statistical and catchment modelling approaches to river flood frequency estimation

Computing flood risk in areas protected by flood defences

Flood risk assessment for infrastructure networks

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