Caspian Sea level changes during instrumental period, its impact and forecast: A review

A review of science–policy interface for water governance in the Caspian Sea

“…Other sources describe it as a region under extreme stress, owing to the combined action of negative natural and anthropogenic factors, as well as the growing threat of degradation of natural complexes in the coastal zone and ecosystems throughout the Caspian Sea (Zonn, 2005;Jafari, 2010;Yekimov et al, 2021). According to some authors, it is the first stage of an environmental disaster (Lahijani et al, 2023). The environmental focus has changed in recent years from industrial pollution (due to a decline in industrial production) to pollution caused by waste of hazardous substances due to sea level rise.…”

“…Fluctuations in water levels have been pronounced, with notable shifts in the 20 th century, including rapid declines from 1931 to 1940 and subsequent rises between 1978 and 1995. Since 1996, there has been a decline, with a significant drop from 2006 to 2015 and stabilization in 2016-2017 (Modabberi et al, 2020;Lahijani et al, 2023). These water level changes result from a combination of factors, including evaporation due to elevated temperatures and alterations in precipitation and river discharge.…”

“…These water level changes result from a combination of factors, including evaporation due to elevated temperatures and alterations in precipitation and river discharge. Prolonged trends could lead to the disappearance of the northern Caspian Sea and surrounding areas within 75 a, while heightened salinity threatens biodiversity, soils, infrastructure, and public health (Akbari et al, 2020;Lahijani et al, 2023). Escalating air and water temperatures are also concerning, impacting ice cover, water circulation, and chemical and biological processes.…”

“…Indeed, this cooperation is not limited to environmental cooperation, and the need for sustainable regional development has inevitably led to economic and social cooperation (Jonson, 2001;Nouri et al, 2008;Alipour et al, 2017). The destruction of the Caspian Sea ecosystem can be shaped as soon as possible, but it is unlikely to recover, and restoring it certainly will be very timely if it is not impossible in some areas (Barannik et al, 2004;Leroy et al, 2020;Modabberi et al, 2020;Ragimova et al, 2020;Koriche et al, 2022;Lahijani et al, 2023). There will be no alternative in some cases, including the extinction and destruction of rare species (for example, the genetic reserves of sturgeons of the Caspian Sea) (Tasmagambetova et al, 2019;Verbitsky et al, 2019).…”

“…According to Baku gauge data, the Caspian Sea level at the end of 2021 was 1.9 m, lower than in 1995 (CASPCOM, 2022). Satellite altimetry reflects this shrinkage of the Caspian Sea, wherein a modest increase of 25.0 cm was detected between 2001 and 2005, followed by a continual reduction between 2005 and 2022 (Lahijani et al, 2023). It has further increased in the previous year, with a 30.0-cm decline between 2021 and 2022, compared with an average of 9.0 cm per year between 2005 and 2021 (Khaledian et al, 2020).…”