Casing System Risk Analysis Using Structural Reliability

Adams, A.J.; Parfitt, S.H.L.; Reeves, Tim; Thorogood, John

doi:10.2118/25693-ms

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…They give somewhat heavier sizings than API Bulletin 5C3 for low D/t, slightly lighter sizings for medium D/t, and roughly the same sizings for high D/t. 3. It is recommended that the industry consider revision of existing collapse design codes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• a risk comparison of steel and corrosion-resistant alloy completions 2 ; • methodology and software development, including a pilot study 3 ; • a design code calibration using working stress design 4 ; • application of QRA methods to casing seat selection 5 ;…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Log-normal Actual/nominal Varies (1) 0.035 None Average outside diameter (2) Gaussian Actual/nominal 1.005 0.001 None Average wall thickness (2) Gaussian Actual/nominal 1.00 0.021 None Eccentricity (3) Log-normal Actual (%) 7.3 0.60 None Ovality (4) Log-normal Actual (%) 0.30 0.65 None Residual stress (5) …”

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confidence: 99%

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On the Development of Reliability-Based Design Rules for Casing Collapse

Adams

Warren

Masson

1998

Proceedings of SPE Applied Technology Workshop on Risk Based Design of Well Casing and Tubing

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TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractThe API design rules for casing collapse 1 give widely varying predicted failure probabilities over the D/t range for well tubulars. For low D/t, they give unconservative designs (excessive risk); and for moderate D/t, over-conservative designs (excessive safety).This paper describes the development of improved design equations, calibrated using structural reliability methods to obtain a uniform predicted failure probability. The new design rules are simpler to use than the existing API equations, and give either safer or more economic design, depending on D/t ratio.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

On the Development of Reliability-Based Design Rules for Casing Collapse

Adams

Warren

Masson

1998

Proceedings of SPE Applied Technology Workshop on Risk Based Design of Well Casing and Tubing

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“…An analytical treatment of progressive failure was developed as part a larger study of QRA methods. 6 Heat-Up Problem Solutions. (cement shortfall, full-height cementing, casing upsizing, and providing a leak path) all suffer from problems of high cost, potential unreliability, or operational restrictions.…”

Section: Further Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact on Casing Design of Thermal Expansion of Fluids in Confined Annuli

Adams

MacEachran

1994

SPE Drilling &Amp; Completion

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Existing single-string analysis methods may be inadequate for more difficult casing design problems, such as annular fluid heat-up and platform wellhead thermal growth, which require a multistring (or global) analysis of the whole well system. This paper presents a method for such an analysis and describes a finite-element formulation developed to implement it. The formulation is fully general and is applicable to a wide range of casing-/tubing-design problems. IntroductionFluid heat-up pressures in trapped annuli have long been a concern of the petroleum industry and have been the subject of several recent studies.1-5 A general analysis method was first developed for BP Exploration, as part of a study into trapped annular stresses in subsea production wells. 1 ,2 It had a far wider scope than just solution of heat-up problems and proved to be a significant development for four main reasons.1. It is a multi string method and therefore permits analysis of problems like annular fluid heat-up, which was not previously possible with existing single-string techniques.2. Multistring analysis also allows quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of the whole well system by use of structural reliability methods. This opens up a whole new area, probabilistic analysis, which is proving to be of key importance to future developments in casing/tubing design. 6 ,7 3. The solution method uses a finite-element formulation for the axial response; therefore, it does not suffer from the applicability problems of the closed-form approach (discussed later).4. It reduces the whole analysis to the two fundamental equations that govern the behavior of the well system. It can be shown that this general approach, using a finite-element implementation, permits analysis of completely general design problems, even for the most complex aspects of the system response. Furthermore, any future theoretical developments can probably be included in this general finite-element treatment.It may be helpful to discuss the last two points briefly before going further. Currently, many equations exist for casing and tubing design, which makes the subject look more difficult than it really is. The reason for this (apparent) complexity lies not in the theory itself, but in our implementation of it. As an industry, we have largely chosen to implement the theory analytically as closed-form solutions for simple single-string cases. For example, we have closed-form solutions for helical buckling, with and without friction; bending resulting from doglegs; and pressure loads on combination strings. Unfortunately, these all are separate cases. In real well systems, we often have frictional buckling plus multiple doglegs plus mUltiple section changes, a case far too complex to solve in closed form. For real design, therefore, closed-form solutions are often inadequate and we need a more general approach that can incorporate all possible effects, even for complex well models.This paper shows that if we use a finite-element implementation for the axial response, the struct...

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“…For example, Yan et al 13 adopted this method to build a reliability calculation model of casing strength, and calculate the reliability of API strength through contrasting the casing strength under different reliabilities. Adams et al 14 used the structure reliability theory to conduct risk assessment on casing systems, providing theoretical basis for the risk calibration design of borehole casings in exploration wells. By establishing the casing probability models under two types of failure states, Chantose et al 15 calculated the casing failure probability in the reservoir stratum layer based on the structure reliability theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on a probabilistic assessment method based on defective casing safety evaluation criteria in thermal recovery wells

Zhu

Sun

Tong

2014

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part C:

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Due to the fact that the complexity of loads and uncertainties of random variables affect the reliability of defective casings, with consideration to the disadvantages of the deterministic approach, in this paper a probabilistic assessment method is employed based on previously established safety evaluation criteria for casings with corrosion defects in thermal recovery wells. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to analyze the casing reliability under different remaining strengths. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to rank the influence of various variables for casing failure, and finally the influence law of the main parameters on the maximum Von Mises stress of defective casing is summarized.

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Casing System Risk Analysis Using Structural Reliability

Cited by 30 publications

References 4 publications

On the Development of Reliability-Based Design Rules for Casing Collapse

On the Development of Reliability-Based Design Rules for Casing Collapse

Impact on Casing Design of Thermal Expansion of Fluids in Confined Annuli

Research on a probabilistic assessment method based on defective casing safety evaluation criteria in thermal recovery wells

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