Case fatality rate analysis of Italian COVID‐19 outbreak

Giangreco, Giovanni

doi:10.1002/jmv.25894

Cited by 48 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The overall case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 has been estimated be ~0.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–1.0) and to range from 0.001% to 10.1% among those under 20 and over 80 years of age, respectively [ 7 ]. Moreover, it has been reported that the CFR can reach as high as 17% in the Northern regions of Italy [ 8 ]. In China, Yan-ni and colleagues estimated the CFR to be 6.1 ± 2.9% [ 9 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and Estimation of Direct Medical Costs of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Khan

AlRuthia

Balkhi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Objectives: Assess the survival of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients across age groups, sex, use of mechanical ventilators (MVs), nationality, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Methods: Data were retrieved from the Saudi Ministry of Health (MoH) between 1 March and 29 May 2020. Kaplan–Meier (KM) analyses and multiple Cox proportional-hazards regression were conducted to assess the survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from hospital admission to discharge (censored) or death. Micro-costing was used to estimate the direct medical costs associated with hospitalization per patient. Results: The number of included patients with complete status (discharge or death) was 1422. The overall 14-day survival was 0.699 (95%CI: 0.652–0.741). Older adults (>70 years) (HR = 5.00, 95%CI = 2.83–8.91), patients on MVs (5.39, 3.83–7.64), non-Saudi patients (1.37, 1.01–1.89), and ICU admission (2.09, 1.49–2.93) were associated with a high risk of mortality. The mean cost per patient (in SAR) for those admitted to the general Medical Ward (GMW) and ICU was 42,704.49 ± 29,811.25 and 79,418.30 ± 55,647.69, respectively. Conclusion: The high hospitalization costs for COVID-19 patients represents is a significant public health challenge. Efficient allocation of healthcare resources cannot be emphasized enough.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival and Estimation of Direct Medical Costs of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Khan

AlRuthia

Balkhi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Comparing COVID-19 deaths across countries, however, is challenging. Most of the existing literature has relied on case-fatality rates (CFR) as a measure of mortality (2)(3)(4)(5), which are not informative for international and historical comparisons. Since casefatality rates are calculated as the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases, the absence of accurate estimation of the infection rates in a reference population makes the denominator in the CFR reliant on testing strategies and capacities (6).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Ghislandi

Muttarak

Sauerberg

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Existing studies commonly rely on national official reports to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on human life. This is problematic because classification, estimation and reporting of COVID-19 mortality are not consistent across countries. To overcome these problems, this study exploits all cause daily death registrations data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from January 1 to April 15, 2020. This allows us to: 1) calculate excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average of the years 2015 to 2019; and 2) estimate life expectancy on a seasonal and annual basis. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza) and Lombardy region, this analysis captures the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and life expectancy, which are likely to be underestimated when only national level data are considered. We find that seasonal life expectancy in 2020 in the five provinces reduced by 5.1 to 7.8 and 3.2 to 5.8 years for men and women, respectively. For annual life expectancy for the year 2020, in a scenario with no harvesting effect i.e. mortality rates resume to an average level of the years 2015-2019 after the end of the first epidemic wave, the years of life lost is equivalent to 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women in the five provinces. This represents the largest decline in life expectancy after the 1918 influenza pandemic and the Second World War.

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“…To explore the current status of the global COVID-19 pandemic, in terms of CFR, data for the last 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), retrieved from the WHO website 1 , were processed by naive as well as linear regression model analysis, as stated above 8,11,12 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Mandal

2020

Preprint

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There is a huge loss of lives worldwide in relation to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first emerged in December 2019. In view of this the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), is essential to explore for COVID-19. Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic have been retrieved from publicly accessible website of the WHO (World Health Organization), and were processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. The CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, for the period between January 25, 2020 and April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of global CFR, data for the next 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Mean CFRs, in the naive estimates, were 4.59% (95% CI: 3.59 – 5.59) for the world including China, and 3.62% (95% CI: 2.01 – 5.23) for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% (95% CI: 7.18 – 24.02) globally, and 21.65% (95% CI: 11.15 – 32.15) in countries outside China. Following statistical model analysis, the global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. The global CFR of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, ranged 5.9 – 7.04% (mean: 6.58%; 95% CI: 6.11 – 7.03), by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 4.78%. The CFR as explored in the current study might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic.

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Case fatality rate analysis of Italian COVID‐19 outbreak

Cited by 48 publications

References 14 publications

Survival and Estimation of Direct Medical Costs of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Survival and Estimation of Direct Medical Costs of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

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