Cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards: A perspective for critical infrastructure resilience and disaster risk reduction

Suppasri, Anawat; Maly, Elizabeth; Kitamura, Miwako; Syamsidik, Syamsidik; Pescaroli, Gianluca; Alexander, D. R.; Imamura, Fumihiko

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102597

Cited by 52 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The impacts of natural disasters can be multiplied when natural events trigger industrial events ("natural hazards triggering technological disasters", or Natech) (Cruz and Suarez-Paba, 2019). Tsunamis in particular have a history of causing Natech events (e.g., Suppasri et al, 2021); for instance, the 2011 M w 9.1 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami led to not only meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant but also fires, explosions, and hazardous material release at industrial sites (Krausmann and Cruz, 2013). In Mataram, damage to the petroleum tanks, power plant, and other industrial equipment by ground shaking or inundation could trigger Natech events, including fires, explosions, and pollution of the coastal water and associated ecological damage.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Felix

Hubbard

Bradley

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The tsunami hazard posed by the Flores back-arc thrust, which runs along the northern coast of the islands of Bali and Lombok, Indonesia, is poorly studied compared to the Sunda Megathrust, situated ∼250 km to the south of the islands. However, the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence demonstrated the seismic potential of the western Flores Thrust when a fault ramp beneath the island of Lombok ruptured in two Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Although the uplift in these events mostly occurred below land, the sequence still generated local tsunamis along the northern coast of Lombok. Historical records show that the Flores fault system in the Lombok and Bali region has generated at least six ≥Ms 6.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes since 1800 CE. Hence, it is important to assess the possible tsunami hazard represented by this fault system. Here, we focus on the submarine fault segment located between the islands of Lombok and Bali (below the Lombok Strait). We assess modeled tsunami patterns generated by fault slip in six earthquake scenarios (slip of 1–5 m, representing Mw 7.2–7.9+) using deterministic modeling, with a focus on impacts on the capital cities of Mataram, Lombok, and Denpasar, Bali, which lie on the coasts facing the strait. We use a geologically constrained earthquake model informed by the Lombok earthquake sequence, together with a high-resolution bathymetry dataset developed by combining direct measurements from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) with sounding measurements from the official nautical charts for Indonesia. Our results show that fault rupture in this region could trigger a tsunami reaching Mataram in <9 min and Denpasar in ∼ 23–27 min, with multiple waves. For an earthquake with 3–5 m of coseismic slip, Mataram and Denpasar experience maximum wave heights of ∼ 1.6–2.7 and ∼ 0.6–1.4 m, respectively. Furthermore, our earthquake models indicate that both cities would experience coseismic subsidence of 20–40 cm, exacerbating their exposure to both the tsunami and other coastal hazards. Overall, Mataram is more exposed than Denpasar to high tsunami waves arriving quickly from the fault source. To understand how a tsunami would affect Mataram, we model the associated inundation using the 5 m slip model and show that Mataram is inundated ∼ 55–140 m inland along the northern coast and ∼230 m along the southern coast, with maximum flow depths of ∼ 2–3 m. Our study highlights that the early tsunami arrival in Mataram, Lombok, gives little time for residents to evacuate. Raising their awareness about the potential for locally generated tsunamis and the need for evacuation plans is important to help them respond immediately after experiencing strong ground shaking.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Felix

Hubbard

Bradley

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Tsunamis in particular have a history of causing Natech events (e.g. (Suppasri et al, 2021); for instance, the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami led to not only meltdown at the Fukushima-Daichi nuclear power plant, but also fires, explosions, and hazardous materials release at industrial sites (Krausmann and Cruz, 2013). In Mataram, damage to the petroleum tanks, power plant, and other industrial equipment by groundshaking or inundation could 545 trigger Natech events, including fires, explosions, and pollution of the coastal water and associated ecological damage.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunami hazard in Lombok & Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores backarc thrust

Felix

Hubbard

Bradley

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The tsunami hazard posed by the Flores backarc thrust, which runs along the northern coast of the islands of Bali and Lombok, Indonesia, is poorly studied compared to the Sunda megathrust, situated ~250 km to the south of the islands. However, the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence demonstrated the seismic potential of the western Flores Thrust when a fault ramp beneath the island of Lombok ruptured in two Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Although the uplift in these events mostly occurred below land, the sequence still generated 1–2.5 m-high local tsunamis along the northern coast of Lombok (Wibowo et al., 2021). Historical records show that the Flores fault system in the Lombok and Bali region has generated at least six ≥ Ms 6.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes since 1800 CE. Hence, it is important to assess the possible tsunami hazard represented by this fault system. Here, we focus on the submarine fault segment located between the islands of Lombok and Bali (below the Lombok Strait). We assess modeled tsunami patterns generated by fault slip in six earthquake scenarios (slip of 1–5 m, representing Mw 7.2–7.9+), with a focus on impacts on the capital cities of Mataram, Lombok and Denpasar, Bali, which lie on the coasts facing the strait. We use a geologically constrained earthquake model informed by the Lombok earthquake sequence (Lythgoe et al., 2021), together with a high-resolution bathymetry dataset developed by combining direct measurements from GEBCO with sounding measurements from the official nautical charts for Indonesia. Our results show that fault rupture in this region could trigger a tsunami reaching Mataram in < 8 minutes and Denpasar in ~10–15 minutes, with multiple waves. For an earthquake with 3–5 m of coseismic slip, Mataram and Denpasar experience maximum wave heights of ~1.3–3.3 m and ~0.7 to 1.5 m, respectively. Furthermore, our earthquake models indicate that both cities would experience coseismic subsidence of 20–40 cm, exacerbating their exposure to both the tsunami and other coastal hazards. Overall, Mataram city is more exposed than Denpasar to high tsunami waves arriving quickly from the fault source. To understand how a tsunami would affect Mataram, we model the associated inundation using the 5 m slip model and show that Mataram is inundated ~55–140 m inland along the northern coast and ~230 m along the southern coast, with maximum flow depths of ~2–3 m. Our study highlights that the early tsunami arrival in Mataram, Lombok gives little time for residents to evacuate. Raising their awareness about the potential for locally generated tsunamis and the need for evacuation plans is important to help them respond immediately after experiencing strong ground shaking.

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“…The call for a multi-risk approach in DRM follows a growing body of literature that has identified limitations of the current single-hazard risk management approaches that lead to inappropriate risk reduction strategies or enhanced vulnerabilities within a system ( Schipper, 2020 ; Ciurean et al., 2018 ; Duncan et al., 2016 ; de Ruiter et al., 2021 ; de Ruiter and van Loon, 2022 ; Suppasri et al., 2021 ; Koks et al., 2019 ; Goulart et al., 2021 ; Pourghasemi et al., 2020 ; Tabari et al., 2021 ). Recently, it has been proposed to account for the dynamics of multi-sector systems and responses to risk improving our current static understanding of risk to define successful long-term risk management strategies ( Simpson et al., 2021 , 2022 , in review ; Reisinger et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

et al. 2022

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Cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards: A perspective for critical infrastructure resilience and disaster risk reduction

Cited by 52 publications

References 42 publications

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Tsunami hazard in Lombok & Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores backarc thrust

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

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Cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards: A perspective for critical infrastructure resilience and disaster risk reduction

Cited by 52 publications

References 42 publications

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust

Tsunami hazard in Lombok &amp; Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores backarc thrust

Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk

Contact Info

Product

Resources

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Tsunami hazard in Lombok & Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores backarc thrust