Career Performance Progressions of Junior and Senior Elite Track and Field Athletes

Abstract

Purpose To compare and assess differences in the career performance progressions of elite junior and Olympic track and field athletes. Methods Annual best performances from top 8 men and women (e.g. finalists) in track and field events at the 2000 World Junior Championships (junior cohort) and the 2000 Olympic Games (Olympic cohort) were examined. Annual bests of these finalists were tracked each year from select groups: sprints (100 m, 200 m), distance (1500 m, 5000 m), jumps (long jump, high jump), throws (discus, shot put). Age of best lifetime performance, age of final posted performance, and improvement from junior-age best to lifetime best performance were compared between groups. Results Olympic finalists achieved lifetime best performances at later ages than junior finalists [26.0 ± 4.0 years vs. 21.1 ± 3.5 years; age difference 90% CI (3.7-5.2 years), P < 0.001], and this significant age difference between cohorts was found within all four groups. Olympic finalists improved from under-20 best to lifetime best more so than junior finalists [6.1 ± 4.8% vs. 2.5 ± 2.3%; Age difference 90% CI (2.5-4.8%), P < 0.001]. Of 130 junior finalists, 54 did not improve after age 19, while 19 of 128 Olympic finalists posted no improvement after age 19. Conclusion The data suggest that these two populations have different career performance progressions and challenge the notion that achieving elite success as a junior athlete is a prerequisite for the same success at the senior level.

All-Time Best Norwegian Track and Field Athletes: To What Extent Did They Achieve Outstanding Results at The Ages of 15 and 18 Years?

“…This is in agreement with the findings of Svendsen et al (2018), who found that the strongest predictor of senior success among Norwegian junior road cyclists was race performance at 18 years of age. However, it is in contrast to the findings of Foss, Sinex, and Chapman [ 1 ], who, after finding that World Junior Championship finalists in athletics reached their career-best performance at an earlier age and had less performance improvements during their careers than Olympic Games finalists, challenged the assertion that elite success at junior level is a prerequisite for success at senior level. It has to be underlined that, despite the fact that the Norwegian international champions listed in Table 3 showed excellent performance at the age of 18 years, only one of them (JI) won an international title at U20.…”

“…Exceptional sporting performance, often defined as winning a medal in an international competition, is dependent on motor and physical development over the lifespan [ 1 ]. Today, children often focus on training and competition in sports from an early age, in the hope that this will help them to reach an elite level as adults [ 2 , 3 , 4 ].…”

“…As many as 54% never participated in international competitions as senior athletes. In a study where the purpose was to examine the lifetime best performance of World Junior Championship finalists and Olympic Games finalists in athletic events, Foss, Sinex and Chapman [ 1 ] found that World Junior Championship finalists achieved their career-best performance at a younger age compared to Olympic Games finalists. They also had less performance improvement over the course of their career compared to Olympic Games finalists.…”

Performance progression of elite jumpers: Early performances do not predict later success

“…These findings thus corroborate previous evidence suggesting that talent identification and selection at young ages can be biased and do not guarantee the ability to identify senior performers in athletics. 19,23,24,36 Also, as already observed in sprinter athletes, 37 young jumpers that reach a high-performance level without excessive specialization may have a better development toward senior success.…”

“…23 At the moment, there is no clear information on typical transition rates for world-class jumpers. 24 The only way to analyze this aspect would be to assess the performances of a large sample of world-class athletes and track their development across their whole sporting career.…”