Objective: We sought to develop risk scores for the progression from cognitively normal (CN) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
Methods:We recruited into a longitudinal cohort study a randomly selected, population-based sample of Olmsted County, MN, residents, aged 70 to 89 years on October 1, 2004. At baseline and subsequent visits, participants were evaluated for demographic, clinical, and neuropsychological measures, and were classified as CN, MCI, or dementia. Using baseline demographic and clinical variables in proportional hazards models, we derived scores that predicted the risk of progressing from CN to MCI. We evaluated the ability of these risk scores to classify participants for MCI risk.
Conclusions:We have developed MCI risk scores using variables easily assessable in the clinical setting and that may be useful in routine patient care. Because of variability among populations, validation in independent samples is required. These models may be useful in identifying patients who might benefit from more expensive or invasive diagnostic testing, and can inform clinical trial design. Inclusion of biomarkers or other risk factors may further enhance the models. As clinicians and researchers strive to identify individuals at the highest risk of dementia in the earliest possible stages, understanding the predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial because individuals with MCI have an increased risk of developing dementia. A method that predicts an individual's risk of developing MCI, particularly one that is brief, inexpensive, and noninvasive, is essential for risk stratification at the population level and would enhance the design and conduct of interventional trials.Estimates of the prevalence and incidence of MCI have been published from the prospective population-based Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), designed to examine cognitive changes among individuals initially without dementia.