Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition

Abstract

Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks.

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Prediction of the Peak Value of Industrial Carbon Emission in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region

“…Feng et al utilized a combination of LMDI and LEAP models to forecast the carbon emissions of industrial park groups within an economic development zone in Yancheng, spanning from 2020 to 2035, under both baseline and low-carbon scenarios. The findings indicate that the third scenario, as per the low-carbon scenario, is deemed most suitable for park development [18]. Zeng et al [19] conducted a study on different peaking scenarios and found that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, as a whole, is capable of achieving carbon peaking on time under three simulation paths.…”

Optimal Energy Management Strategy of Clustered Industry Factories Considering Carbon Trading and Supply Chain Coupling

“…Environmental pollution and energy security have become global challenges and pose serious threats to human survival and development [3,4]. A global consensus is emerging in support of the promotion of green energy economics and the expedited transition to a low-carbon future [5,6]. The Integrated Energy System (IES) stands as a key enabler in this paradigm, seamlessly interconnecting a diverse array of energy sources, encompassing renewables, thermal energy, and natural gas [7].…”