Caracterización socio-epidemiológica y evolución de la tuberculosis en la Región Metropolitana de Chile, 2005 a 2018

Olmos, Claudio; Stuardo, Valeria; Ramonda, Paulina; Peña, Carlos

doi:10.4067/s0716-10182020000300237

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The study aimed to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make predictions considering the current context in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. The study also showed a curious fact, that is, although tuberculosis most commonly affects men of the economically active and older adult age groups, there was a high incidence of the disease in women in the 15 to 59 years age group, an unusual phenomenon, compared with other studies carried out in Brazil and internationally [15][16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…This can also be associated with delays in diagnosis, social factors that make diagnosis and control di cult and with areas lacking su cient screening measures [24]. Furthermore, this high incidence among men may be related to behavioral factors, such as the fact that they do not frequently seek medical attention when symptoms appear, as well as operational issues related to di culties in accessing health services in a timely manner due to incompatibility between men's working hours and those of health facilities, lack of a health policy directed toward men, and restricted access to health information [20].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Andrade

Arroyo

Ramos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Objective: to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make forecasts in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. Method: This was a Time Series study, carried out in a municipality in the northeast of Brazil. Population was composed of tuberculosis cases among residents of the municipality, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to gender and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and predictions of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average – Seasonal ARIMA model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both genders, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend between the years 2002–2018, however, it is unlikely that there will be a significant fall in the disease before 2022.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Andrade

Arroyo

Ramos

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The study also showed a curious fact. Although TB most commonly affects men of economically active and older adult age groups, there was a high incidence of the disease in women in the 15–59 years age group, which is an unusual phenomenon, compared with other studies carried out in Brazil and internationally [ 16 – 21 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

et al. 2021

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Background The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. Methods This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusions The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

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“…The study also showed a curious fact. Although TB most commonly affects men of economically active and older adult age groups, there was a high incidence of the disease in women in the 15-59 years age group, which is an unusual phenomenon, compared with other studies carried out in Brazil and internationally [16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…This can also be associated with delays in diagnosis, social factors that make diagnosis and control di cult and areas lacking su cient screening measures [25]. Furthermore, this high incidence among men may be related to behavioral factors, such as the fact that they do not frequently seek medical attention when symptoms appear, as well as operational issues related to di culties in accessing health services in a timely manner due to incompatibility between the working hours of men and those of health facilities, lack of a health policy directed toward men, and restricted access to health information [21].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tuberculosis Forecasting and Temporal Trends by Sex and Age in a High Endemic City in Northeast Brazil: Where Were we Before the Covid-19 Pandemic?

Andrade

Gomes

Ramos

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a city in northeast Brazil. Methods: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability had it not been for the Covid-19 pandemic. The results are relevant to evidence the problem of TB that transcends its aspects prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Caracterización socio-epidemiológica y evolución de la tuberculosis en la Región Metropolitana de Chile, 2005 a 2018

Abstract: Financiamiento: No hubo financiamiento externo. Conflicto de intereses: Los autores declaran la ausencia de conflictos de interés.

Cited by 5 publications

References 19 publications

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Tuberculosis Forecasting and Temporal Trends by Sex and Age in a High Endemic City in Northeast Brazil: Where Were we Before the Covid-19 Pandemic?

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