Capturing human behaviour

Ferguson, Neil

doi:10.1038/446733a

Cited by 309 publications

(228 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

216

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…An important shortcoming of our model is that the potential benefit of reporting the number of successfully vaccinated individuals (if any) in the previous year in regards to the subsequent level of vaccination the next year (for a seasonal disease such as influenza for instance) is not considered. Human reactions to the presence of a disease abound, yet they have rarely been systematically investigated [50]. Even though the question of what factors influence people to change their behavior is a difficult one [46], accounting for behavioral change in a heterogeneous mixing population is of interest.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of an Infectious Disease Where Media Coverage Influences Transmission

Tchuenche

Bauch

2012

ISRN Biomathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is significant current interest in the application of media/psychosocial effects to problems in epidemiology. News reporting has the potential to reach and to modify the knowledge, attitudes, and behavior of a large proportion of the community. A susceptible-infected-hospitalized-recovered model with vital dynamics, where media coverage of disease incidence and disease prevalence can influence people to reduce their contact rates is formulated. The media function is incorporated into the model using an exponentially decreasing function. Qualitative analysis of the model reveals that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when a certain threshold is less than unity. Numerical results show the potential short-term beneficial effect of media coverage.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of an Infectious Disease Where Media Coverage Influences Transmission

Tchuenche

Bauch

2012

ISRN Biomathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The exact impact they can have on the disease dynamics, however, is difficult to quantify and often subject to speculation. Where conclusive observations are missing, mathematical modelling is used to test hypotheses and to identify crucial parameters in the interaction between a spreading disease and an associated behavioural response in the population [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Endemic disease, awareness, and local behavioural response

Funk

Gilad

Jansen

2010

Journal of Theoretical Biology

217

201

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The spread of a contagious disease is often accompanied by a rise in awareness of those in the social vicinity of infected individuals, and a subsequent change in behaviour. Such reactions can manifest themselves in lower susceptibility as people try to prevent themselves from catching the disease, but also in lower infectivity because of self-imposed quarantine or better hygiene, shorter durations of infectiousness or longer immunity. We here focus on the scenario of an endemic disease of which members of the population can be either aware or unaware, and consider a broad set of possible reactions. We quantify the impact on the endemicity of a disease in a well-mixed population under the variation of different disease parameters as a consequence of growing awareness in the population. Applying a pair-closure scheme allows us to analyse the effect of local correlations if aware individuals tend to occur near infected cases, and to link this to the amount of overlap between the networks underlying the spread of awareness and disease, respectively. Lastly, we study the consequences on the dynamics when the pathogen and awareness spread at different velocities.

show abstract

“…With better data on the timing and role of different interventions--both clinical and nonclinical--it would be possible to obtain more accurate estimates about the precise contribution of different factors to the dynamics of EVD in Sierra Leone. In particular, it is important to understand how awareness of EVD influences behavior during an outbreak (22), and how this change in behavior might affect disease dynamics (23,24).…”

Section: Ehc/ CCC Etumentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

Kucharski

Camacho

Glover

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

100

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014–2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.

show abstract

Capturing human behaviour

Cited by 309 publications

References 0 publications

Dynamics of an Infectious Disease Where Media Coverage Influences Transmission

Dynamics of an Infectious Disease Where Media Coverage Influences Transmission

Endemic disease, awareness, and local behavioural response

Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About