Capture-Recapture Studies for Multiple Strata Including Non-Markovian Transitions

Brownie, Cavell; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hestbeck, Jay B.

doi:10.2307/2532259

Cited by 665 publications

(671 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…We estimated habitat movement rates independently of survival (sensu [37]). If survival differs between habitats, then state-transition and survival must be jointly considered (sensu [51]). However, we found no significant difference in survival among habitats, and given the strong posterior weighting towards remaining in the same habitat, we expect our state-transition matrix, c, to be a good indicator of movement rates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

Russell

Ruffino

2011

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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Local spatio-temporal resource variations can strongly influence the population dynamics of small mammals. This is particularly true on islands which are bottom-up driven systems, lacking higher order predators and with high variability in resource subsidies. The influence of resource fluctuations on animal survival may be mediated by individual movement among habitat patches, but simultaneously analysing survival, resource availability and habitat selection requires sophisticated analytical methods. We use a Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model to estimate survival and movement probabilities of non-native black rats (Rattus rattus) across three habitats seasonally varying in resource availability. We find that survival varies most strongly with temporal rainfall patterns, overwhelming minor spatial variation among habitats. Surprisingly for a generalist forager, movement between habitats was rare, suggesting individuals do not opportunistically respond to spatial resource subsidy variations. Climate is probably the main driver of rodent population dynamics on islands, and even substantial habitat and seasonal spatial subsidies are overwhelmed in magnitude by predictable annual patterns in resource pulses. Marked variation in survival and capture has important implications for the timing of rat control.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

Russell

Ruffino

2011

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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“…The capture histories of experimental group animals were analysed using multi-state mark-recapture analysis (Brownie et al 1993), using the program MARK (White & Burnham 1999) to estimate survival and recapture probabilities, transition probabilities from 'susceptible' to 'Tb-infected' states, and the effects of sex and vaccine treatment on those probabilities (appendix A1, electronic supplementary material). Vaccine efficacy, as defined in appendix A1, was calculated from the Tb transition probabilities.…”

Section: (D) Statistical Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oral vaccination reduces the incidence of tuberculosis in free-living brushtail possums

et al. 2009

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Bovine tuberculosis (Tb) caused by Mycobacterium bovis has proved refractory to eradication from domestic livestock in countries with wildlife disease reservoirs. Vaccination of wild hosts offers a way of controlling Tb in livestock without wildlife culling. This study was conducted in a Tb-endemic region of New Zealand, where the introduced Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the main wildlife reservoir of Tb. Possums were trapped and vaccinated using a prototype oraldelivery system to deliver the Tb vaccine bacille Calmette -Guerin. Vaccinated and control possums were matched according to age, sex and location, re-trapped bimonthly and assessed for Tb status by palpation and lesion aspiration; the site was depopulated after 2 years and post-mortem examinations were conducted to further identify clinical Tb cases and subclinical infection. Significantly fewer culture-confirmed Tb cases were recorded in vaccinated possums (1/51) compared with control animals (12/71); the transition probability from susceptible to infected was significantly reduced in both males and females by vaccination. Vaccine efficacy was estimated at 95 per cent (87-100%) for females and 96 per cent (82-99%) for males. Hence, this trial demonstrates that orally delivered live bacterial vaccines can significantly protect wildlife against natural disease exposure, indicating that wildlife vaccination, along with existing control methods, could be used to eradicate Tb from domestic animals.

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“…Heterogeneity can be modelled by the inclusion of covariate information. For discrete valued individual time-varying covariate(s), the Arnason-Schwarz (AS) model is often used where the transition probabilities between discrete states are typically assumed to be first-order Markovian (Brownie et al 1993;Schwarz et al 1993). We consider the more complex case where the individual time-varying covariates are continuous valued.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing Mark–Recapture–Recovery Data in the Presence of Missing Covariate Data Via Multiple Imputation

Worthington

King

Buckland

2014

JABES

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We consider mark-recapture-recovery data with additional individual time-varying continuous covariate data. For such data it is common to specify the model parameters, and in particular the survival probabilities, as a function of these covariates to incorporate individual heterogeneity. However, an issue arises in relation to missing covariate values, for (at least) the times when an individual is not observed, leading to an analytically intractable likelihood. We propose a two-step multiple imputation approach to obtain estimates of the demographic parameters. Firstly, a model is fitted to only the observed covariate values. Conditional on the fitted covariate model, multiple "complete" datasets are generated (i.e. all missing covariate values are imputed). Secondly, for each complete dataset, a closed form complete data likelihood can be maximised to obtain estimates of the model parameters which are subsequently combined to obtain an overall estimate of the parameters. Associated standard errors and 95 % confidence intervals are obtained using a non-parametric bootstrap. A simulation study is undertaken to assess the performance of the proposed twostep approach. We apply the method to data collected on a well-studied population of Soay sheep and compare the results with a Bayesian data augmentation approach.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

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Capture-Recapture Studies for Multiple Strata Including Non-Markovian Transitions

Cited by 665 publications

References 11 publications

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

Oral vaccination reduces the incidence of tuberculosis in free-living brushtail possums

Analysing Mark–Recapture–Recovery Data in the Presence of Missing Covariate Data Via Multiple Imputation

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