Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Giménez, Olivier

doi:10.1016/j.seares.2017.10.001

Cited by 13 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…, Bertulli et al. ). We do not advocate that opportunistic data could or should replace data collection under well‐designed CMR studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The substantial advantage of this method is in its ability to estimate the size and various parameters describing the inter-and intra-annual dynamics of populations with imperfect detectability. We believe MSORD models could provide relevant information on the demography of many wide-ranging species where data are regularly collected by the public through ecotourism activities (Davies et al 2012, Dennhardt et al 2015, Bertulli et al 2017). We do not advocate that opportunistic data could or should replace data collection under well-designed CMR studies.…”

Section: Challenges Of Modeling Opportunistic Photoidentification Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, such effort is expensive and logistically demanding. A cost-effective approach could be the use of individual-identification data that are opportunistically collected (Tezanos-Pinto et al 2013, Strandbr aten Rødland and Bjorge 2015, Bertulli et al 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi‐state open robust design applied to opportunistic data reveals dynamics of wide‐ranging taxa: the sperm whale case

et al. 2019

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Capture–mark–recapture methods have been extensively used to estimate abundance, demography, and life history parameters of populations of several taxa. However, the high mobility of many species means that dedicated surveys are logistically complicated and expensive. Use of opportunistic data may be an alternative, if modeling takes into account the inevitable heterogeneity in capture probability from imperfect detection and incomplete sampling, which can produce significant bias in parameter estimates. Here, we compare covariate‐based open Jolly‐Seber models (POPAN) and multi‐state open robust design (MSORD) models to estimate demographic parameters of the sperm whale population summering in the Azores, from photo‐identification data collected opportunistically by whale‐watching operators and researchers. The structure of the MSORD also allows for extra information to be obtained, estimating temporary emigration and improving precision of estimated parameters. Estimates of survival from both POPAN and MSORD were high, constant, and very similar. The POPAN model, which partially accounted for heterogeneity in capture probabilities, estimated an unbiased super‐population of ~1470 whales, with annual abundance showing a positive trend from 351 individuals (95% CI: 234–526) in 2010 to 718 (95% CI: 477–1082) in 2015. In contrast, estimates of abundance from MSORD models that explicitly incorporated imperfect detection due to temporary emigration were less biased, more precise, and showed no trend over years, from 275 individuals (95% CI: 188–404) in 2014 to 367 (95% CI: 248–542) in 2012. The MSORD estimated short residence time and an even‐flow temporary emigration, meaning that the probability of whales emigrating from and immigrating to the area was equal. Our results illustrate how failure to account for transience and temporary emigration can lead to biased estimates and trends in abundance, compromising our ability to detect true population changes. MSORD models should improve inferences of population dynamics, especially when capture probability is low and highly variable, due to wide‐ranging behavior of individuals or to non‐standardized sampling. Therefore, these models should provide less biased estimates and more accurate assessments of uncertainty that can inform management and conservation measures.

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“…, Bertulli et al. ). We do not advocate that opportunistic data could or should replace data collection under well‐designed CMR studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Challenges Of Modeling Opportunistic Photoidentification Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi‐state open robust design applied to opportunistic data reveals dynamics of wide‐ranging taxa: the sperm whale case

et al. 2019

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“…North Atlantic minke whales are well-studied on feeding grounds, and have been recorded in summer months off the coasts of Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway and the British Isles, as far north as the Barents Sea e.g. (Reilly et al, 2008;Macleod et al, 2004;Bartha et al, 2011;Bertulli et al, 2018;De Boer, 2010). In addition, summer sightings of minke whales have also been recorded in the English Channel, Celtic Sea and as far south as the Bay of Biscay (Hammond et al, 2013;Hammond et al, 2002;Laran et al, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

High latitude winter sightings of common minke whale calves (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) in the Northeast Atlantic

et al. 2018

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Although common minke whales occur in relatively high numbers in the North Atlantic, relatively little is known about their seasonal movements or the location of their breeding and calving grounds. This lack of knowledge compromises our ability to protect potentially important areas for this species. Here we report high latitude winter sightings of unweaned minke whale calves recorded in offshore waters in the Northeast Atlantic. We discuss how such sightings may contribute to our understanding of the winter distribution and movements of this species; raising the possibility that a proportion of the population may over-winter at high latitudes in offshore waters, and that calving may occasionally occur in the warm North Atlantic Drift waters of western Europe's continental shelf.

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“…Para efeito de aplicação, direcionamos nossos processos inferenciais para populações residentes em cavernas. Em particular, o habitat destas populações destaca-se por ser restrito e bem definido se comparado, por exemplo, aos habitats de tigres (AZIZ et al, 2017;ROYLE et al, 2017), aves (BORCHERS; EFFORD, 2008;LIEURY et al, 2017) e mamíferos aquáticos (MARQUES et al, 2009;BERTULLI et al, 2018) que, em geral, não apresentam barreiras físicas. Uma vantagem desta aplicação é que os esforços amostrais de captura podem ser convenientemente direcionados para avaliar, se não todo, boa parte do habitat da população.…”

Section: Capítulo 1 Introduçãounclassified

Modelos espaciais de captura-recaptura para populações abertas

Pezzott¹

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Nesta tese propomos dois modelos espaciais de captura-recaptura para estimação da abundância populacional em população aberta. Os modelos estatísticos propostos ajustam-se a dados obtidos via amostragem de captura-recaptura com marcação individual realizada em diferentes locais dentro do habitat, levando em consideração as taxas de nascimentos e mortes durante o período de estudo e as localizações geográficas das capturas. No primeiro modelo, propomos uma modelagem hierárquica para os tamanhos populacionais locais a fim de obter a distribuição preditiva da abundância populacional para regiões não visitadas pela amostragem. Nesta etapa, uma estrutura para dados zero-inflacionados foi adotada para acomodar situações quando realizam-se amostragens em locais sem a presença da espécie. O segundo modelo proposto leva em consideração o deslocamento dos animais entre os diferentes locais de amostragem, generalizando o primeiro modelo no qual consideramos a permanência dos animais em um mesmo local. Neste caso, tornou-se possível estimar o tamanho da área de vida (movimentação) da espécie além de predizer locais com maiores abundâncias de animais. Em ambos modelos, propomos uma abordagem bayesiana para o processo inferencial e derivamos algoritmos de simples implementação computacional, a partir do uso de técnicas de dados aumentados. As propriedades frequentistas dos estimadores bayesianos foram avaliadas por meio de estudos de simulação e, por fim, estas propostas de modelagem foram aplicadas a três conjuntos de dados reais de aracnídeos.

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Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

Cited by 13 publications

References 52 publications

Multi‐state open robust design applied to opportunistic data reveals dynamics of wide‐ranging taxa: the sperm whale case

Multi‐state open robust design applied to opportunistic data reveals dynamics of wide‐ranging taxa: the sperm whale case

High latitude winter sightings of common minke whale calves (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) in the Northeast Atlantic

Modelos espaciais de captura-recaptura para populações abertas

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