Cancer burden and risk in the Chinese population aged 55 years and above: A systematic analysis and comparison with the USA and Western Europe

Abstract

Background We analysed the cancer burden among elderly Chinese people over the age of 55 years and compared them to USA and Western Europe to explore the cancer model in China. Methods We retrieved data on 29 cancers with 34 risk factors from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database to evaluate the cancer burden in Chinese elderly individuals aged 55 years and older. We then used the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised death rate (ASDR), age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to compare the characteristics and change trend of cancers among China, USA, and Western Europe. Results In 2019, the number of incident cases of 29 cancers among people aged 55 years and above in China increased more than 3-fold compared to 1990, while the number of deaths and DALYs approximately doubled. We also found that the cancer population in China was ageing; meanwhile, the cancer burden became significantly higher for men than for women, and the gap between men and women had widened. Cancers with the highest cancer DALYs were lung cancer (13 444 500; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 11 307 100, 15 853 700), stomach cancer (7 303 900; 95% UI = 6 094 600, 8 586 500), oesophageal cancer (4 633 500; 95% UI = 3 642 500, 5 601 200), colon and rectum cancer (4 386 500; 95% UI = 3 769 500, 5 067 200), liver cancer (2 915 100, 95% UI = 2 456 300, 3 463 900), and pancreatic cancer (2 028 400; 95% UI = 1 725 000, 2 354 900). Compared with 1990, the DALY rate and incidence rate of stomach cancer, oesophageal cancer, and liver cancer had markedly decreased. The DALY rate and incidence rate of lung, colon, rectum, and pancreatic cancer had increased significantly, as did the incidence rate of breast cancer in women. Smoking and diet were the top two cancer risk factors, and the impact of ambient particulate matter pollution on cancer increased each year. The overall 29 cancers age-standardised DALY rate and ASDR in China, USA, and Western Europe were similar, and all showed downward trend in the past 30 years. Compared with the USA and Western Europe, the age-standardised DALY rate of liver, nasopharyngeal, oesophageal, stomach, and cervical cancers in China was more prominent. The age-standardised DALY rate of lung cancer and colon and rectum cancer decreased annually in Western Europe and the USA, but increased in China. Conclusions Over the past 30 years, China had made progress in controlling stomach, oesophageal, and liver cancer. However, lung, colon, rectum, pancreatic, and breast cancers had become more prevalent, having risen alongside economic development. The risks of smoking and dietary were major issues that need to be addressed urgently. The cancer situation in China remains serious; future cancer prevention efforts need to balance economic development with people's physical health, identify key groups, improve the health environment of residen...