Canadian bulk water exports: Analyzing the sun belt conflict using the graph model for conflict resolution

Abstract

A conflict over the proposed bulk export of water from Canada is systematically studied using the graph model for conflict resolution in order to illustrate how strategic conflicts of this type can be better understood and managed. The ongoing conflict involving a US company, Sun Belt Water Inc., and the Canadian federal and provincial governments is modeled and analyzed using the graph model methodology. This dispute reflects the kinds of controversies that can arise when international trade laws, which stress Amer Obeidi received his B.Sc. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Jordan in 1990 and M.A.Sc. in Management Sciences in 2002 from the University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. He is currently pursuing a PhD degree in the Department of Systems Design Engineering, at the University of Waterloo. His currents research interests include confrontation analysis, conflict analysis, negotiation, cognitive and emotional processes effect on decision making, and choice theory. He may be reached at <aaobeidi@engmail.uwaterloo.ca>.Keith W. Hipel is Professor of Systems Design Engineering at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario. Dr. Hipel's major research interests are the development and application of conflict resolution and time series analysis techniques from a systems design engineering perspective. The main application areas of these decision technologies are water resources management, hydrology, environmental engineering and sustainable deveIopment. Dr. Hipel is the author/co-author of four books, nine edited books, many journal papers and is an associate editor of six international journals. Moreover, he is a professional Engineer and has carried out consulting activities with engineering firms, government agencies, and utilities in many countries.

Actor Models for Policy Analysis

“…Conflict analysis models are powerful tools to show the impacts of noncooperation, clearly pointing out what opportunities are missed through a persistent lack of cooperation, and where opportunities exist for cooperation that might lead to outcomes that are mutually preferred by both sides-in effect, classic 'win-win' solutions. A clear example of such an insight can be found in a case discussed by Obeidi et al (2002) (see Box 8.4).…”

“…These models and methods are often used to give strategic advice to one actor, who can be a party in a conflict, a mediator, or an interested third party, by identifying promising courses of action that might lead to favorable and stable outcomes (including coalition formation), by anticipating the possible actions of other actors, and by providing interests in the strategic dilemmas faced by the various actors involved in the conflict or negotiation (Bennett et al 2001;Obeidi et al 2002;Kilgour and Hipel 2005). Conflict analysis models are powerful tools to show the impacts of noncooperation, clearly pointing out what opportunities are missed through a persistent lack of cooperation, and where opportunities exist for cooperation that might lead to outcomes that are mutually preferred by both sides-in effect, classic 'win-win' solutions.…”

“…The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution was used to analyze a complicated international trade dispute between the US company, Sun Belt Water, Inc., and the Federal Government of Canada over bulk water exports (Obeidi et al 2002). This conflict can be traced back to the 1980s, when there was a perception of surplus fresh water in British Columbia (BC).…”

Decision support system analysis with the graph model on non-cooperative generic water resource conflicts

“…Madani and Lund [15] investigated the water disputes for San FranciscoSan Joaquin delta using Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach. Obeidie et al [16] addressed a conflict of exporting water from Canada. Raquel et al [17] developed a cooperative solution concept for balancing the economic benefits versus negative environmental impacts from agriculture production.…”

Untitled

“…和偏对策理论(metagame theory) [5] 的基础上 发展起来的一种对冲突行为进行正规分析的决策分 析方法。更明确地说，它为冲突中的决策者、仲裁者 或者政策制定者提供战略建议。图模型法首先由 Kilgour 等(1987)创建 [6] ，Fang 教授等(1993)对图模型 进行了完整的描述 [7] ，目前，图模型已经应用到非常 广泛的领域，包括：环境冲突 [8] 、贸易谈判 [9] 、战争 冲突 [10] Table 5. Equibrium under uncertainty preference …”